A clear chart showing the Israel election polls, using the numbers Israeli news channels 1, 2, and 10, shows Likud in a very tight race with Zionist Union:
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The chart is courtesy of the Israel Project.
Omri Ceren of the Israel Project explains what’s going in there:
Summary: the polls were wrong. The last 72 hours saw a systematic march to the political center, which translated into a surge for the center-right Likud party of Benjamin Netanyahu and the center-left Zionist Union of Isaac Herzog. Each of them will get roughly 27 seats in the next Knesset parliament, and one of the three exit polls shows the Likud at 28.
Political upshot: Netanyahu is heavily favored to be the next Prime Minister, but it’s not certain. The Kulanu party of Moshe Kahlon – which ran on a platform built around middle class issues in general, and banking reform in particular – won 9-10 seats. holds the key to either coalition. Without Kahlon/Kulanu, the political left has 57 seats and the political right has 54. The game is to get to 61, which is 120 divided by 2 plus 1.
Policy upshot: there has been a huge debate in Israel about enacting electoral reform in order to end political fragmentation. There is a deepening belief in the policy world that the rise of minor parties had made governance intractable, leading to paralyzed coalitions that ended long before their term expired. The problem was political: smaller parties didn’t want to change laws that had put them in power. The voters may have made that decision for them.
Money lines that are already getting heard: “march to the center” and “Kahlon will be the kingmaker”
Political upshot: Netanyahu is heavily favored to be the next Prime Minister, but it’s not certain. The Kulanu party of Moshe Kahlon – which ran on a platform built around middle class issues in general, and banking reform in particular – won 9-10 seats. holds the key to either coalition. Without Kahlon/Kulanu, the political left has 57 seats and the political right has 54. The game is to get to 61, which is 120 divided by 2 plus 1.
Policy upshot: there has been a huge debate in Israel about enacting electoral reform in order to end political fragmentation. There is a deepening belief in the policy world that the rise of minor parties had made governance intractable, leading to paralyzed coalitions that ended long before their term expired. The problem was political: smaller parties didn’t want to change laws that had put them in power. The voters may have made that decision for them.
Money lines that are already getting heard: “march to the center” and “Kahlon will be the kingmaker”
