Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is on track to vastly outspend his Democratic opponent on television during the final two weeks of Kentucky’s contentious Senate campaign.
The numbers are the latest sign of trouble for Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who was once viewed by Democrats as having a decent chance to knock McConnell out of office.
The Republican has placed reservations for $2.1 million in broadcast and cable television advertising across a broad array of media markets between Tuesday and Nov. 4. A pro-McConnell super PAC is scheduled to run another $1.4 million in television spots during the same period.
Grimes has reserved $1.4 million worth of television time, in fewer broadcast markets and with less of a reliance on cable than McConnell.
Only United Mine Workers was scheduled to be on the air backing Grimes up in the final two weeks of the campaign, but with a paltry $89,140 buy in Charleston, W.Va.
The Senate race television advertising reservations were last updated Friday evening, although media buying sources told the Washington Examiner that no changes in purchased airtime were made by the campaigns or their allied groups as of Monday afternoon.
McConnell has maintained a small but consistent lead over Grimes for several months. An advertising advantage of this magnitude could give him a decisive edge in the homestretch of his campaign for a sixth term and a shot at becoming the next Senate majority leader. Republicans need to win a net of six Democratic-held seats on Election Day to win Senate control and assume control of the chamber in January.
“Sen. McConnell is in strong position for re-election and nobody will work harder than he will for the final two weeks,” McConnell campaign spokeswoman Allison Moore said. “We are committed to ensuring that not a single Kentuckian goes to the polls on Nov. 4 without understanding that a vote for Grimes is a vote for [President] Obama and a vote for McConnell is a vote for Kentucky to lead America in a different direction.”
McConnell led Grimes by 4 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics average. Meanwhile, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pulled out of Kentucky a week ago; Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC connected to Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., exited in September.
The Grimes campaign, which spend more of its money up front in the hopes of knocking out McConnell early, dismissed the Republican’s advertising advantage, boasting that a superior ground game would carry the Democrat to victory.
“For over 15 months, Mitch McConnell and his billionaire backers have thrown millions of dollars into the wind and claimed that they would knock Alison out of this race,” Grimes spokeswoman Charly Norton said. “There is no question that our campaign’s message and unprecedented grassroots organization are far stronger than McConnell’s Washington-focused campaign.”
Kentucky is divided into about a dozen media markets emanating from about five states. Louisville and Lexington are the biggest homegrown markets in a state that also is served at least partially by Cincinnati, Ohio; Charleston, W.Va.; Evansville, Ind.; Nashville and Knoxville, in Tennessee; and Tri-Cities, which covers parts of North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia but also hits a slice of eastern Kentucky.
McConnell has reserved time in each one of these markets from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4; Grimes is not. In almost every market, including the biggest ones, McConnell has reserved more total airtime than Grimes. Indeed, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, the pro-McConnell super PAC, has bought more television advertising than the Grimes campaign in markets like Bowling Green, Ky.; Cincinnati; and Charleston, W.Va.
Here are a few examples comparing reserved ad-buys between the McConnell and Grimes campaigns and Kentuckians For Strong Leadership:
Cincinnati
Grimes: $144,160
McConnell: $435,476
Kentuckians for Strong Leadership: $356,111
Lexington
Grimes: $277,219
McConnell: $320,492
Kentuckians for Strong Leadership: $262,135
Louisville
Grimes: $515,585
McConnell: $573,550
Kentuckians for Strong Leadership: $246,117
Evansville
Grimes: $85,515
McConnell: $199,196
Kentuckians for Strong Leadership: $116,794
Paducah
Grimes: $105,435
McConnell: $145,792
Kentuckians for Strong Leadership: $136,394
