Sen. John McCain must walk a tight wire and woo both moderate Democrats and conservative Republicans without offending either if he wants to win this blue state in the general election, political observers say.
“There are a lot of military retirees in Maryland, a lot of independents and a lot of moderates,” said former Gov. Robert Ehrlich, a Republican who backed McCain after former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dropped out of the race.
“I?ve said this 8 zillion times but it?s an important point to make: Maryland is arguably one of the most Democratic states in the country, but not one of most liberal states.”
In a state where Illinois Sen. Barack Obama captured more than 450,000 votes, compared with McCain?s 160,000, the Arizona senator will have to work hard to win over the support of not only disenfranchised Democrats but also wary Republicans who wonder if he?s conservative enough.
Whether McCain can pull this off, Ehrlich said, “maybe.”
“That?s what I told him, by the way,” said Ehrlich, who talked to McCain twice in recent days.
Some political analysts aren?t as optimistic, saying they doubt McCain can attract enough voters in heavily Democratic Maryland.
The largest percentage of Maryland independents favor Obama, said C. Vernon Gray, a political science professor at Morgan State University.
“I don?t think he can ?pull an Ehrlich? in Maryland because he is perceived as being more conservative than Ehrlich,” he said.
McCain has a chance in Maryland, but not a good chance, said Richard Vatz, a rhetoric professor from Towson University.
“There is hostility between Hillary Clinton and Obama and if that is exploited, that could give McCain a chance,” he said.
Clinton and Obama could spar if the Democratic nominee doesn?t pick the other for vice president, and McCain could capitalize on the resentment, Vatz said.
McCain?s more moderate stances on immigration, congressional earmarks and global warming have alienated die-hard conservatives, the type of voters Larry Helminiak considers the “heart of the Republican Party.”
“Whether McCain will win rests not on whether he can pull in the Democrats, but will he be able to pull in the conservative Republicans,” said Helminiak, chairman of Carroll County?s Republican Central Committee.
“Conservatives have been grossly taken for granted,” he said. “That?s why Republicans lost control of Congress in 2006.”
If McCain picks a running mate for vice president that soothes right-wingers? concerns about his commitment to fiscal and social conservatism, he has a better shot of winning their votes, he said.
