Republicans got some good news for their defensive Senate map this week in Montana as election raters and Democrats project an increasing number of paths to flipping the Senate majority in November.
A Montana poll by CIVIQS/Daily Kos conducted July 11-13 showed Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Daines slightly ahead of Democratic nominee and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, leading 49% to 47%.
The CIVIQS survey comes with a caveat: Respondents were polled online rather than on the phone — not the most accurate method. It has a margin of error of 4.2%
But still, it’s a welcome boost for Republicans.
Election raters Cook Political Report and Inside Elections moved the Montana senate seat from “Lean Republican” in the early spring to “Toss-up” this summer, which, if accurate, would give Democrats a wider map to flip the four to five seats they need to take control of the Senate. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-10 had found Bullock up by 2 points.
The second-term governor, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic presidential nomination last year, saw his approval ratings spike up as he handled the coronavirus pandemic, and the state maintained low infection rates.
On Wednesday, Bullock flexed some more of his gubernatorial leadership muscle and issued an order requiring statewide mask use.
But Republican operatives believe that Bullock’s so-called “coronavirus halo” will not last. Cases are rising in the state, and Bullock may need to spend more time managing the pandemic. He risks looking like he is neglecting his gubernatorial duties during an emergency if he spends time on the Senate campaign trail.
Bullock’s liabilities, such as his gubernatorial record and his 2020 Democratic presidential primary bid, have not come to the forefront of the race. And unlike other close Senate races such as Maine and Arizona, where Democrats will try to tie incumbent Republicans to President Trump in order to damage them, that is not a tool that Bullock can use as easily: Trump won the state by 20 points in 2016. (Trump’s approval rating in Montana was slightly underwater in the CIVIQS poll, though: 48% favorable to 50% unfavorable.)
Daines and Bullock are fairly evenly matched in their war chests, with Daines having $7.1 million in cash on hand and Bullock having $7.6 million at the end of June.
The Montana race is indicative of increasing optimism among Democrats, who believe that with Trump’s approval rating ticking down amid the coronavirus pandemic and new attention focused on race relations and policing, that they can win back the Senate in the fall.
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden went so far as to change his stance and open the door to getting rid of the Senate filibuster, which would allow Democrats to push left-wing legislation through with a simple majority rather than needing 60 of 100 votes.
Race ratings in the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have ticked slightly in Democrats’ favor over the last several months. One of the toughest defensive battlegrounds for Republicans is in Arizona, where Democratic challenger Mark Kelly has $23.9 million in his war chest, more than twice that of incumbent first-term Sen. Martha McSally’s $10.3 million.
Overall, though, the map looks just as political operatives expected it would be more than a year ago. At this point, control of the Senate looks like it will come down to a few hard-fought, expensive races, particularly in North Carolina, Maine, Arizona, and Colorado.
