American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy — yes, “Zippy” — Duvall views the Trump administration’s trade policy battles with China, the European Union, and congressional Democrats as being a lot like a flood or a drought. That is, trade-related turmoil is not something that he or his members look forward to, but it is something that they know will happen from time to time and that they have to weather the storm.
Duvall’s attitude is contrary to the narrative often seen in news outlets and op-ed pages, that farmers are boiling mad over President Trump’s trade policy and prepared to turn against him and cost him the 2020 election. Duvall stayed away from electoral politics in an interview with the Washington Examiner, but he noted that the farming community’s views on trade are a lot more nuanced than others might think.
For one thing, while agriculture was not one of the issues that prompted the Trump administration to challenge Beijing on trade, Duvall says that China was closed off to a lot of U.S. agricultural trade even before the current trade war. So a lot of farmers were pleased that somebody was talking tough with Beijing because they hope it’ll force the Chinese to accept more of their product.
“In a country with all of the people they have got, they’re still the No. 3 market for us. As big as they are, they should have been the No. 1 market,” he said. “So we were just getting part of what we should have been getting. So our farmers look at this as short-term pain for long-term gain.”
Beijing’s retaliation against the Trump administration has involved cutting back on, and at one point, stopping completely, its purchases of U.S. farm goods such as soybeans and pork. Beijing has gone so far as to target products produced in Trump-friendly states. Duvall says farmers saw such a move coming ahead of time.
“Agriculture has always been the spear tip in every trade negotiation, so that is not something that is unusual for us,” he said. “We all know that when it comes to China, it does not play by the rules.”
Farmers have an interest in the parts of the Chinese trade negotiations that don’t directly involve agriculture, he added, such as technology transfers and intellectual property protections, two of the areas in which the White House is trying to get Beijing to reform its policies. Modern agriculture either uses those technologies or depends on the companies that do.
It helps, too, that Trump is concerned about farmers. “In my lifetime, whether you like him or not, I’ve never had a president talk as much about farmers and agriculture as much as this one does,” he said.
None of which is to say that farmers enjoy the ripples caused by trade fights. Farmers don’t like tariffs and would instead do business without them. At several points in the interview, Duvall said that, first and foremost, farmers want to ensure that trade policy “does no harm.”
“The frustration may boil up after a certain bit of news comes out, but then when farmers sit and think about what is happening and what the end goal is, the frustration moves back,” he said.
Farmers aren’t particularly concerned that China will start buying farm products from other countries, either. “It’s a threat, but is it a long-term threat? I don’t think so,” he said. He argued that no other country could produce the quality agricultural products the U.S. can. “They’re going to turn to where their needs are, and we are the ones that are the most reliable,” he said.
For now, farmers are closely monitoring the current trade talks with Beijing and cautiously optimistic that they can lead to something more concrete that will result in the easing back of tariffs by both sides. They’re pushing for a House vote on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, too, which includes measures to open Canada on poultry and dairy trade, among other provisions.
The farming community has clout with the White House and Congress. One of the main reasons that a U.S.-EU trade deal remains stalled is that the EU refuses to allow its own farm policies to be put up for negotiation. Farmers pushed the administration and Congress hard not to pursue small-scale talks on the other issues that the EU will negotiate.
“We’ve gotten a pretty good commitment from this president that they won’t have these conversations unless agriculture is a part of that. If that’s true, then we’ve been successful in convincing this administration of how important it is,” Duvall said.
“We want a level playing field in Europe, just like in the rest of the world: No tariffs, free trade, and we’ll compete with any producer in the world,” he said.
