President Biden’s West Wing has backed Democrats’ sweeping bill to overhaul federal elections, but “policy land mines” in the 800-page package await Senate negotiators looking for a sweet spot to pass the bill into law.
There are parallels between the For the People Act and Biden’s just-signed $1.9 trillion coronavirus spending package, particularly positive support among the general public for election financing reforms.
“H.R. 1 mirrors the American Rescue Plan, in the sense that it’s overwhelmingly popular with Democrats and independents,” said David de la Fuente of the think tank Third Way, which backs the legislation.
“This goes back to Biden’s governing philosophy. He doesn’t want to divide this country in terms of what everyday Americans are thinking and feeling,” de la Fuente added. “That’s why things like the American Rescue Plan, and H.R. 1, tend to be ideas and programs that wide swaths of Americans, regardless of ideology, and regardless of partisanship, would support.”
Advocates say the White House is making voting rights reforms a top priority.
Asked whether the White House was delivering the same engagement on the For the People Act as other top priority bills, a leading Democratic Senate aide agreed.
“Short answer: yes,” said Michael Zamore, chief of staff to Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley, a Democrat and the lead co-sponsor of S. 1.
The Biden administration “continues to be very engaged on the For the People Act,” including in discussions at the staff level, said Aaron Scherb, director of legislative affairs at Common Cause, a government reform group that backs the legislation.
The White House issued a statement of administration policy when the bill passed the House last week, and press secretary Jen Psaki has cited it in briefings.
But like Biden’s coronavirus package, which failed to garner any Republican votes in either chamber, H.R. 1 and an eventual Senate companion bill seem unlikely to gather bipartisan steam inside the Beltway.
The American Rescue Plan passed through reconciliation, a Senate procedural budget tool that allows some legislation to forgo the usual 60-vote threshold.
But to move through the evenly split upper chamber, a voting rights package would need at least 10 Republican votes.
“There are Democratic senators who are committed to letting Republicans have a seat at the table if they’re willing to approach it,” said de la Fuente. “Based on the public opinion research I’ve seen, I think the Democratic caucus would be open to that.”
Several analysts pointed to so-called “policy land mines” inside the House legislation.
“There’s so much in this bill. It runs the gamut,” said Matthew Weil, elections project director at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “The more you stuff into the omnibus democracy bill, the more opportunity there is for someone to find something they don’t like.”
One provision, an apparent rebuke to former President Donald Trump, would require presidents to disclose their tax returns, a top priority for Democrats. Trump became the first president in decades to refuse to comply voluntarily.
“There’s parts of H.R. 1 that I think can be compromised away because they’re a little bit more frivolous,” said one policy adviser. “They’re not expanding early vote, they’re not expanding mail-in voting, they’re not automatic voter registration, which are things that are absolutely critical.”
Provisions for disclosing presidential tax returns or an Election Day holiday poll exceptionally well, this person said. “But people don’t get that the federal code says that the federal government can only grant guaranteed holidays to federal workers and contractors, so the Election Day holiday sounds great, but it’s not going to help a ton of people.”
American Majority CEO Ned Ryun said Republicans want to see reforms passed — just not necessarily those the Democrats are pushing.
But there are areas of potential bipartisan agreement, such as restoring voting rights to felons upon completing their sentences, improving voter registration lists, or absentee ballot tracking.
A ballot measure on felon voting passed in Florida last year, while in Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott issued a proclamation last summer to expand early voting.
“You don’t do that in a state like Florida without winning a lot of Republicans,” said the adviser, adding that verifiable mail voting has also typically been popular among the state’s voters.
“With any complex and comprehensive piece of legislation, the many good ideas are paired with a large number of policy land mines that could detonate at any time and derail forward progress,” said Weil.
“I do think there are agreements to be had on election security issues,” such as making sure election officials have the resources they need, he said. “Vote by mail is obviously a flashpoint.”
“I don’t think there are 60 votes for the legislation as it is. That’s pretty clear. So, I think the question becomes, ‘Is this the issue that Democrats try to bust the filibuster on?’ I don’t know,” Weil added.
Aides to Republican senators who have found areas of cooperation with their Democratic counterparts in the past said they were unaware of any current efforts to find a path forward.
Some Democrats are pushing to reform the filibuster such that an H.R. 1 companion could pass with a simple majority.
Citing a Supreme Court exemption for the filibuster, South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, a Democrat, said Thursday that the filibuster should not apply to voting rights and civil rights legislation.
But doing away with the 60-vote rule is a fraught topic as Democrats look for ways to advance their agenda in an evenly divided Senate and amid resistance from key members of the caucus.
Weil believes there is a federal agenda that could achieve bipartisan support “and also make tangible improvements to the voting experience.”
He added, “I hope they don’t give up on electoral reforms.”
