If Republicans recapture the House, as is widely expected, they may have an unexpected group to thank: the voters of deep-blue New York.
Even as Democrats’ blue wall held sturdy, preventing the GOP from making inroads in several close contests across the country, Republican candidates in New York outperformed most prognostications, flipping or nearly flipping a handful of House seats and nearly capturing the governor’s mansion.
“Look, we’re going to win the majority in New York state alone if you look at the four seats we picked up on election night. … We picked up two in the Hudson Valley, two on Long Island,” House GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik said Wednesday morning, adding, “You can build the majority just out of our inroads in the Northeast.”
MIDTERM RESULTS: MARC MOLINARO FLIPS UPSTATE NEW YORK HOUSE DISTRICT BACK TO GOP CONTROL
Stefanik, who handily won her reelection bid Tuesday night, pointed to Republican Mike Lawler “firing Sean Patrick Maloney,” the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as well as the projected victories of George Santos (R-NY) in a congressional district on the North Shore of Long Island, Anthony D’Esposito’s (R-NY) upset in the Democrat-leaning 4th Congressional District lining the southern shore of Long Island’s Nassau County, and Duchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R-NY) flipping an upstate district as evidence of the GOP’s strength in New York.
Republicans’ strong showing in the Empire State may have been propelled by a near upset in the gubernatorial race. Gov. Kathy Hochul, who ascended to the governorship upon the resignation of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo last August, held off a robust challenge from Rep. Lee Zeldin by single digits, despite a partisan voter advantage of nearly 2-1 in favor of Democrats.
New York voters consistently ranked crime among their top concerns, with violent crime up 8.6% in New York City from 2020 to 2021, according to the FBI. The point was punctuated by Zeldin’s own near-misses with criminals after a gunman opened fire outside his home and a man with brass knuckles attacked him at a campaign event.
“We need a governor right now to be advocating for this because it’s the right thing to do … to back the blue defending our correctional officers who are now being assaulted because of the implementation of the Halt Act, for our victim’s families where they’re having to read about parole boards releasing cop killers and murderers and rapists without the victim and victim’s family being able to weigh in with their position,” Zeldin said after he was attacked, adding in a tweet he was “as resolute as ever to do my part to make NY safe again.”
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Of New York’s 26 congressional seats, 11 are set to be held by Republicans after an aggressive map signed by Hochul that would have locked in an expected 22-4 partisan advantage for Democrats was stricken by a series of courts. Democratic lawmakers were forced into awkward games of musical chairs, with Maloney, who currently represents the state’s 18th Congressional District, relocating to the 17th District in an effort to improve his reelection prospects. The move prompted the incumbent of that district to relocate to lower Manhattan’s 10th District, where he lost a crowded primary race. Ironically, even as Maloney conceded defeat Wednesday morning, Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY), the Democratic nominee in the more GOP-friendly 18th District, scored a narrow victory.
Despite expectations of a red wave rippling across the United States, Tuesday evening’s results proved to be more of a red trickle, with New York and Florida serving as two of the few highlights for an underperforming Republican Party.
