Azerbaijani forces shot down a Russian military helicopter in the midst of a border conflict with Armenia, a clash that the government in Baku maintains took place by mistake.
“The Azerbaijani side apologizes to the Russian side over this tragic incident, which was of an accidental nature and was not aimed against the Russian side,” Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry said.
That statement marks an attempt to avoid any major Russian response in a conflict that holds already the risk of expanding behind the local belligerents. Russia has a defense treaty with Armenia, but Azerbaijan — backed by Turkey, the oft-wayward NATO ally — has waged an offensive in a renewal of a long-standing border dispute.
“The flight took place in close proximity to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, at a time when active military clashes are ongoing in Nagorno-Karabakh,” the Azerbaijan foreign ministry said. “Russian helicopters had not previously been seen in the area.”
Two Russian service members died in the downing of the helicopter, and a third was wounded, according to Russian state-run media. The loss, in a conflict widely perceived as orchestrated by Turkey, evokes memories of Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet along the border with Syria in 2015.
“Azerbaijan is an ally of Turkey, we know that, and look what happened in 2015,” a Baltic official said while assessing the situation. “The reaction, of course, was kind of tough, but it didn’t lead into conflict, thank goodness.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has strengthened ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the expense of NATO since that 2015 incident, most notably by purchasing advanced Russian S-400 anti-aircraft weaponry in defiance of U.S. sanctions threats and transatlantic complaints that such a system could expose NATO forces to Russian espionage.
Yet Erdogan also has worked with Ukraine in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and his thinly veiled incursion in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict represents a dramatic challenge to Putin’s role as power broker in a region typically viewed as Moscow’s backyard. “It would be incautious and arrogant to predict with absolute certainty that the conflict will expand,” University of California, Berkeley’s Armenian Studies Program Director Stephan Astourian said last week.
“If more Turkish troops are brought to fight with the Azerbaijanis, chances will increase that things will further degenerate. That could also be the case if Azerbaijani/Turkish forces mount a more significant attack on the territory of Armenia proper. This is likely to lead to Russian intervention since that country has a defense treaty with Armenia.”
