House Speaker Paul Ryan is poised to cruise to an easy GOP primary win in Wisconsin on Tuesday, according to poll numbers and strategists who see no possible path to victory for his GOP opponent, Paul Nehlen.
Polls have Ryan up by as much as 66 points in the state’s 1st District, leaving very little chance for a repeat of former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning primary loss in 2014 to political novice Dave Brat.
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“Do I predict a Ryan victory, sure, that’s easy,” Madison-based GOP strategist Brandon Scholz told the Washington Examiner. “The question is, will it be by 70 points, 55 points or 30 points.”
Pollsters are forecasting Ryan will win the primary by a margin of 35 points to 75 points over Nehlen, a Harley-riding businessman who has attempted to build momentum as an outsider candidate with the backing of prominent conservatives like Ann Coulter and Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee.
In May, Palin predicted on CNN’s “State of the Union” that Paul Ryan, “is soon to be Cantored,” referring to the June 2014 primary in Virginia’s 7th District that ended Cantor’s 14-year career in the U.S. House, where he served as the number-two Republican.
Nehlen’s campaigned was catapulted into the national spotlight earlier this month when GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump tweeted a “thank you” to Nehlen for his public support.
The exchange had national media scrambling to define the race as a proxy war between Trump and Ryan, who has regularly criticized Trump for his comments about Muslims and other minority groups.
But in the Janesville-area district where Ryan is seeking a ninth term, Trump isn’t very popular, and neither is Nehlen.
“This was born of a Donald Trump tweet and it kind of took off from there,” Scholz said. “Mostly out in the D.C. political circles. Back here in little ol’ Wisconsin, people were saying, what’s the big deal?”
Trump endorsed Ryan last week, after refusing to do so at first, but pollsters say his backing makes little difference in the primary.
A Remington Research poll of likely primary voters released Aug. 4 showed Ryan leading Nehlen 80 percent to 14 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
The poll showed Trump’s favorability rating at 52 percent — an improvement over 41 percent he garnered earlier this Spring.
But Nehlen was viewed unfavorably by 47 percent of likely voters who knew of him, with only 16 percent viewing him favorably.
Of those likely voters who were familiar with Ryan, 80 percent viewed him favorably.
Poll director Titus Bond said he predicts Ryan will win easily on Tuesday.
“I’m thinking it’s going to be an 83 percent to 17 percent type of affair,” Bond told the Examiner.
Political strategists say the primary isn’t at all similar to the ouster of Cantor, who lost to Brat, a Tea Party candidate, by a margin of 56 percent to 46 percent.
Unlike Cantor, Ryan is viewed as a politician who remains closely connected to his constituents and according to political strategists, is highly attentive to their needs.
Ryan returns home every weekend to his home in Janesville and actively campaigns for re-election.
“He’s been incredibly attentive to his district his entire time in the House,” Wisconsin GOP strategist Mark Graul told the Examiner. “I think Speaker Ryan is on his way to a big win tomorrow.”
