It’s so, so early in the offseason. But the Nicklas Backstrom signing at least gives us an idea of what the Caps are working with as they put together next year’s roster. Forget the risk any pro sports team takes inking a player to a 10-year contract — keeping Backstrom’s salary-cap hit to $6.7 million is a huge help for 2010-11. We won’t know until the season ends what the NHL’s salary cap will be for next year. Could go up $100,000 or so, depending on league-wide revenues. Maybe a bit more. Maybe it even drops — though that’s not expected. For now, let’s stick with the $56.8 million figure teams worked with in 2009-10.
Under contract right now the Caps have a first line of: Alex Ovechkin ($9.538 million), Backstrom ($6.7) and Mike Knuble ($2.8). On the second line we have Brooks Laich ($2.066) and Alex Semin ($6). For the sake of argument we have no third line. On the fourth I’ll slot Jason Chimera ($1.875), David Steckel ($1.1) and Matt Bradley ($1.0).
Defensemen? Mike Green ($5.25), Tom Poti ($3.50), Karl Alzner ($1.675) and John Carlson ($0.846). John Erskine ($1.25) is the No. 7 defenseman — though you could save some cash and make it Tyler Sloan ($.700). In this scenario the goalies are Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth ($.822 each). Oh yeah – and keep a spare $1.2 million or so around for the two extra forwards that will start the season as healthy scratches. Chris Bourque (.577) and Andrew Gordon (.606) fit under that ceiling.
That leaves payroll at $46,427,292 with Erskine and $45,877,292 with Sloan. If the salary cap stays flat that leaves between $11.222 million and $11.772 million to fill the remaining holes. That starts with the team’s remaining four restricted free agents. Eric Fehr and Tomas Fleischmann could fill the third-line wing spots. Boyd Gordon is another extra forward. Jeff Schultz gives the Caps five starting defenseman. How much that quartet gets paid determines what’s left over to fill the other big holes: Second and third-line center and another defenseman.
Can the Caps sign those four restricted players — however you want to allocate the money — for under $5.5 million total? That’s about the only way Washington could afford to sign, say, its own unrestricted free agent Eric Belanger at center and a more expensive free-agent defenseman like Anton Volchenkov (Ottawa). Or go cheap on the sixth defenseman (re-sign unrestricted free agents Shaone Morrisonn or Milan Jurcina?) and sign Belanger and then a player who is a better fit on the second line. Feel free to check the list. There aren’t many legitimate second-line centers on the open market. Without a trade — or without walking away from one of their own restricted free agents — then even under a best-case scenario Washington’s front office will have around $6 million to fill the two center spots and the sixth defenseman. Go a second round with Belanger and fellow center Brendan Morrison — another of the Caps’ unrestricted free agents — and you’re talking at least $3.25 million based on their salaries last season. In that case, you have a shade under $3 million for an unrestricted free-agent defenseman. But it sure won’t be Volchenkov, who possesses many of the skills the Caps lack on the blueline and is likely due a raise north of $4 million. Maybe Dan Hamhuis (Nashville) or Dennis Seidenberg (Boston) or Mark Eaton (Pittsburgh) fit. All had cap hits between $2 million and 2.25 million last season.
My point with this exercise wasn’t to predict what the opening roster will look like. I just wanted to show what constraints general manager George McPhee has to work around as he tries to put this puzzle together. We know 2009 first-round pick Marcus Johansson will compete for an NHL spot next year. They told us that outright at Backstrom’s press conference when Johansson’s three-year entry-level contract was also announced. I’d guess Mathieu Perreault has to be in that mix, too — though the Caps have yet to see him perform well for a sustained stretch at the NHL level. Keith Aucoin is an AHL All-Star, but has never played more than 38 games in an NHL season. Are there any other viable options at center in the organization?
Of course, there’s always the old standby — stand pat (re-sign the RFAs along with Belanger, Morrison and Morrisonn), save that precious cap space and then make a move later in the regular season. As we now know with 100 percent, absolute certainty — just making the playoffs is all that matters in the NHL. Put together a roster deep enough to shake off a rash of injuries and talented enough to at least win the Southeast Division again and call it a day. Nothing else this team does in the regular season is going to matter anyway. Whatever happens the front office — especially assistant general manager/salary-cap guru Don Fishman — has a busy summer in store.
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