An Iranian-controlled militia couldn’t have breached the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad without the tacit acquiescence of some Iraqi security forces, according to American government sources and analysts.
“It shows just how fragile that relationship is with the U.S. and Iraq,” a U.S. government source who has worked in Baghdad told the Washington Examiner. “It’s not an Iraqi government, it’s an Iranian satellite.”
Such frustrations have simmered for months amid rocket attacks on bases that house American troops in Iraq. The attacks were launched by Iranian-controlled militias that are supposed to report to the Iraqi central government. Those tensions erupted Tuesday when the militias succeeded in breaching the Green Zone in Baghdad.
“I don’t think there is any way that protesters could have gotten so close to the wall and breached the compound without the Iraqi security forces turning a blind eye,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Examiner. “The fact that they got so close to the wall … geographically, that could not have happened without some level of turning a blind eye by security forces.”
Some members of Iraqi security services tasked with protecting the embassy appear to have joined the assault, as local photographers caught uniformed men helping smash windows at the compound. “This is a major catastrophic image and an indicator of how things are in Baghdad,” Steven Nabil, a correspondent with Alhurra, a U.S.-backed media outlet in Iraq, tweeted of the photos.
The assault should deepen American suspicions about at least some Iraqi partners, analysts say. “It means that Washington should worry that there are many in security forces who are friendlier with pro-Iran Shia militias, and this means something for the type of government that’s going to exist in Baghdad,” Ben Taleblu said.
“And this means something for how trusting Washington can be of people in the ministry of interior or in the ministry of defense.” Likewise, it points to the danger faced by Iraqi leaders who work with the United States. “Many Iraqi politicians fear Iran more than they are supportive of the U.S.,” James Phillips, a Middle East expert at the Heritage Foundation, told the Washington Examiner. “The danger is over time more and more will slide that way out of fear of assassination by Iran’s friends in Iraq, who will do the dirty work.”
Those friends appear to have been out in force on Tuesday, as militia leaders and former high-ranking Iraqi government officials helped organize the attack. Graffiti spray-painted on the walls referred repeatedly to Qassem Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“I see this as part of Iran’s hybrid war strategy of fighting the U.S. to the last Iraqi,” said Phillips. Ben Taleblu echoed that sentiment but cautioned against overstating Iran’s power within the country.
“While the Iraqis protesting around the U.S. Embassy and compound in Baghdad matter, what matters more are the countless Iraqis on the street since October chanting, ‘Iran out,’” he said. “Iran is trying to have this flare-up dominate the fact that its co-religionists in the country next door, where Iran has spent innumerable amounts of blood and treasure to try to co-opt and control, are rejecting Iranian influence wholesale.”
