Trump narrows gap by 9 points in Pennsylvania

In the last Monmouth Pennsylvania poll conducted in July, Trump was down by 13 points, 53% to 40%.

“This is really a game of inches. The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there. It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

With the Monmouth poll, the RealClearPolitics average of surveys in Pennsylvania also shows a tightening in the race. Biden was 8.5% ahead of Trump on July 24, compared to 4.2% ahead on Wednesday.

Monmouth provided additional figures that modeled support for Biden and Trump among likely voters for both a high-turnout and low-turnout scenarios.

In a high-turnout scenario, Biden leads Trump 49% to 46%, while in a low turnout scenario, Trump is just 1 point behind Biden: 48% to 47%. Those also show significant jumps for Trump compared to the July survey.

The Republican National Convention, which took place before the poll was conducted, may have had an impact on the shift.

“The Republican convention attempted to sow some seeds of doubt among core Democratic blocs, especially young and urban voters. It looks like they may have had a small amount of success with that, at least for now,” said Murray.