President Joe Biden’s sliding popularity has caused Democrats in competitive elections this November to distance themselves from their party’s standard-bearer.
But Biden’s approval problems could hamstring his own political aspirations, with polls indicating that Democrats would prefer another nominee on the ballot in 2024.
INFLATION WOES STEP ON GOOD NEWS FOR BIDEN
Two polls finding that Democrats support usurping Biden as their party’s leader reflect “unhappiness” with the president’s job so far, according to Democratic strategist Stefan Hankin.
“Does it show that the Democratic Party is not 100% thrilled with everything that Biden has done? Sure, but we’re Democrats. This is what we do,” he told the Washington Examiner.
But Hankin was adamant that the polls were “relatively meaningless” since Democrats will vote for the nominee, whoever it is. That is because the Democratic Party has become a “coalition of the Left and center Left” without a “unicorn” candidate capable of pleasing both factions, he said.
When pressed, Hankin conceded that the situation was not ideal. But he contended that high favorable ratings and enthusiasm levels are a “near impossibility,” particularly with an evenly divided Senate.
A CNN poll published this week found that 51% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters want another nominee for 2024, while 45% would stick with Biden. That survey reflects an earlier narrower Suffolk University study in which 46% of Florida Democrats said they would pick Hillary Clinton over 43% who would do the same for Biden if the 2024 primary were held today.
The poll results are “a dangerous signal that there is vulnerability within the party,” according to Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos. The surveys’ repercussions are “fluid” considering rising consumer prices and that Russia-Ukraine tensions may ease, but the economy is still Biden’s “Achilles heel,” he said.
“If ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ in 2024 or in 2022, then that could be a telltale sign,” Paleologos added, quoting Democratic strategist James Carville.
Biden’s average economic job approval is 38%, and his disapproval is 57%, according to RealClearPolitics. That net negative 18 percentage point rating is worse than his overall approval of net negative 13 points.
Some political commentators note that Biden has limited options regarding inflation, and the president has repeatedly said the Federal Reserve Board should remain independent. But Paleologos argued that Biden could pressure the Fed to increase interest rates, similar to Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, addressing the concerns of people “nervous with what’s going on in their nest eggs.”
Hankin, for his part, recommended that the White House improve its expectations management, which has been complicated by mixed messaging with the Democratic campaign arms.
“We need to keep this coalition together in order to be in the majority or else it falls apart,” he said.
If Biden is “primaried” in 2024, it would likely be “the kiss of death” to his presidency based on trends, according to historian David Pietrusza.
Pietrusza named William Howard Taft and Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, Lyndon Johnson and Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy in 1968, Gerald Ford and Reagan in 1976, Jimmy Carter and Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy in 1980, and George H.W. Bush and former Republican aide Pat Buchanan in 1992 as examples.
“It’s not so much the fact of a primary but the circumstances of who and when,” Pietrusza said. “Right now, of course, Joe Biden is not a good ‘who,’ and 2024 is not a good ‘when.'”
For Paleologos, the Carter comparison drew the most parallels, but it could also be distinguished given today’s political partisanship.
“Keep in mind that back then there were more persuadables,” he said. “That’s what makes it a serious topic of conversation. You’ve got more people in that pool of left of center than there were in the 1970s, and that’s a bigger pool of people saying there might be a better alternative than the current president.”
Biden’s appearance alongside Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Culpeper, Virginia, last week raised eyebrows after she admitted she is “going to have a hard time getting reelected.” Spanberger secured a second term in 2020 with only a 1.8 point margin of victory.
Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel described Biden as being a “burden” to Democrats like Spanberger.
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“From forcing masks on school children and skyrocketing grocery and gas prices, Biden has shown he doesn’t care,” she said.
