Impeaching President Trump will be an easy “yes” vote for many liberal Democrats. But vulnerable moderates face the difficult choice: oppose voters in their districts or their own caucus.
“I’m leaning no,” Rep. Collin Peterson, a Minnesota Democrat, told the Washington Examiner. “I want to look at everything.”
Several Democrats from swing districts interviewed by the Washington Examiner said they had not decided whether to support the two articles of impeachment announced Tuesday by Democratic leaders. The articles charge Trump with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The House could vote on the articles next week.
Peterson predicted only “four or five” Democrats will likely vote against the articles, which would represent a very small defection out of 233 House Democrats and would leave plenty of room to pass the articles with a robust margin leaders can showcase.
Peterson, however, is among 31 swing-district Democrats who must answer to constituents who voted for President Trump and who largely oppose the House Democratic impeachment effort.
Peterson’s 7th District seat, straddling Minnesota’s western state lines with North Dakota and South Dakota, is listed as a toss-up by many race analysts. If he votes for impeachment, it could help end a nearly 30-year career in Congress.
Peterson’s fellow Democrat from the Upper Midwest, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who represents Michigan’s 8th District and is in a toss-up race for 2020, is also weighing how to vote on the impeachment articles.
“I have not read them,” Slotkin told the Washington Examiner. “I need to read them.”
Some of the most endangered Democrats are steering clear of talking about impeachment, which has flatlined in the polls despite weeks of public hearings and nonstop media coverage.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a New Jersey Democrat who is running for reelection in a district rated “toss-up,” declined to discuss his likely opposition to the impeachment articles.
“Honestly, I’m just tired of talking about it,” Van Drew said Tuesday as he left the House chamber. “I’m taking a break. I’m not getting into this. I’m going to wait until I know everything. Right now, I’m radio silence.”
House Democratic leaders said Wednesday they won’t whip the vote, meaning they will not arm-twist their caucus into voting in favor of impeachment articles.
But the Democratic leadership is not going to let the articles go to the floor without assured passage, either.
“We think this is a vote of conscience,” said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat. “That does not mean that we don’t intend to talk to members and explain to them what the Judiciary Committee has done, why they’ve done it, and answer any questions that they might have.”
Only 216 votes will be required to pass impeachment articles. That gives Democratic leaders plenty of cushioning, up to 17 votes, if they want to spare some of the most vulnerable Democrats such as Peterson, Van Drew, and Slotkin.
But their list of “toss-up” Democratic incumbents is a long one. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report lists 18 Democratically held seats as toss-up races and another 18 Democratically held seats as highly competitive.
And in an ominous sign for Democrats, a Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday showed slightly more than half of voters oppose impeaching Trump.
A group of about 10 Democrats met Monday to discuss seeking a censure vote instead of impeachment.
“Those of us who met discussed many topics; that was one of the topics discussed,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat, said Tuesday.
Endangered Democrats have been willing to support impeachment so far. When the House voted to sanction the impeachment proceedings on Oct. 31, all but two Democrats backed the resolution.
Democrats said Tuesday they expect a similar outcome and insisted opposition to impeachment within their party will be negligible, no matter what the polls say.
“It will be within one hand,” Kentucky Democrat and Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth told the Washington Examiner, holding up five fingers.
