Senior Republican operatives are confident President Trump will not absorb lasting damage from fresh allegations that he pressured Ukraine to investigate political rival Joe Biden, predicting he might even win over swing voters in 2020 if Democrats initiate impeachment.
Republican strategists are not dismissing the gravity of accusations. They are simply skeptical that the unfolding scandal will hurt Trump with GOP voters any more than did a two-year federal probe into charges that he colluded with Russia to defeat Hillary Clinton. Some Republicans even see an upside. Impeachment lacks critical support from voters, yet House Democrats are more likely to pursue removing the president through extra-electoral means, risking a backlash.
“Impeachment is Trump’s ace in the hole,” Brad Todd, a veteran Republican consultant, told the Washington Examiner. “It would convince plenty of swing voters that Democrats are wholly unconcerned with their pocketbook priorities.”
“I haven’t seen any evidence of this hurting Trump with Republicans yet,” added Alex Conant, a Republican strategist. “The Democrats rush to impeachment pushes everyone into their partisan corners, which helps Trump in the short-term. The key thing to watch is whether more Senate Republicans start voicing criticism.”
Trump is fending off allegations that he acted improperly in conversations with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, pressing him to investigate Biden, the former vice president and the leading contender for the Democratic nomination. The accusation, which Trump has not unequivocally denied, suggests the president enlisted a foreign government to upend a potential 2020 challenger who happens to lead him in dozens of hypothetical matchups. Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, made similar requests to Ukrainian officials.
Trump and his campaign are trying to make the best of it, raising anew previous reports about Hunter Biden’s questionable business dealings in Ukraine while his father was vice president. The president’s allies insinuate Biden corruptly used his position as a foreign policy emissary for President Barack Obama to influence Ukraine on behalf of his son. Trump might be able to turn the tables on Biden, although Republicans are concerned about his exposure.
But fueling their optimism are the consistency of Trump’s poll numbers during his turbulent presidency.
His job approval throughout the Russia investigation, led by special counsel Robert Mueller, fluctuated from 39% to 45%. Given that, and American voters’ polarized opinions of Trump, Republicans are less worried about the Ukraine scandal undermining the president’s reelection than they were at the outset of the Russia affair. Republican voters’ skepticism of media stories critical of Trump is another reason party insiders are doubtful the Ukraine incident will leave a mark.
“The Russia collusion theory melted down eventually, too, despite leaks, whistleblowers and media hyperventilating,” said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist in Louisville who is close with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. “You’d have to forgive Republicans for saying: ‘We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends.’”
Democratic leaders in Congress have been hesitant to embrace impeachment.
In the House, where Democrats control the majority, enough votes to support impeachment would probably materialize if Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California gave it the green light. But in the Senate, where Republicans reign, there would likely not be enough votes to remove Trump from office. Pelosi’s bigger concern has been voters. A majority oppose impeachment in most public opinion polls. Independents and swing voters are especially reticent to oust Trump in this way. But Pelosi might now be forced to move ahead with impeachment.
However, some Republican insiders qualified their predictions. They said that if incontrovertible evidence emerged that Trump leaned on Zelensky to target Biden, that could change the political calculus. Indeed, if Trump indicated to Zelensky that his compliance was a condition of U.S. military aid, as some critics have suggested occurred, the president might find his reelection chances in jeopardy.
“If the worst-case scenario is proven true and the president effectively acknowledges that he ordered the code red, then yes, I think it will adversely impact Trump’s standing with that small but influential universe of persuadable voters,” said Jim Merrill, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire.
