Rumors are flying around the Blogosphere suggesting dire implications in former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson’s raising of $3 million in the first month of his exploratory presidential campaign. Mike Allen of Politico is peddling a story quoting a lone, unnamed “key Republican” as follows:
“But many Republicans have turned queasy as Thompson has ousted part of his original brain trust and repeatedly delayed his official announcement, which is now planned for shortly after Labor Day, in the first two weeks of September.
”Some are already saying a prospective Thompson run is a flop. ‘I just don’t see it anymore,’ said a key Republican who had been extremely enthusiastic about a Thompson candidacy.
“’That number is really underwhelming. There were indications it could be double that. They’ve been saying that people were waiting for Fred, and the money was going to pour in. He looks like he’s already losing momentum.’”
Having spent most of my career either as a mainstream reporter and editor or working with same, I think it is probably safe to assume you are likely reading agenda-driven smoke when an MSM journalist uses the word “many” without providing concrete evidence to back up such an assertion as Allen is pushing regarding fading GOP support of Thompson.
There is also a technical term for such a statement coming from a supposedly high-ranking GOP operative who would so quickly conclude that $3 million raised in 26 days for an unannounced candidate is evidence of “a flop.” That technical term is “unvarnished garbage.” No truly experienced national political operative would make such a claim, unless he was talking to a reporter looking for a quote that serves somebody’s agenda.
And by the way, don’t assume just because Allen describes his ghost source as “enthusiastic” about a Thompson candidacy that said source is a Thompson backer. A Guliani backer, for example, might well be “enthusiastic” about a Thompson candidacy that reduces Romney’s support among conservative GOP rank and filers.
Finally, consider these numbers:
Former New York Mayor Rudy Guliani raised $258,660 during his first 30 days as a candidate. Sen. John McCain, R-AZ, raised $1,130,351 during his first month. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s first-month figure was inflated by his loaning his campaign $850,000.
So Thompson raises three times as much as McCain did during a comparable period and 10 times as much as Guliani did and it indicates a flop? The technical term for that kind of reasoning is “BS.”
Understand that these thoughts come from one whose confidence in the GOP as a viable vehicle for conservative reform has all but evaporated since 2004. I don’t have a horse in this race and don’t frankly think any of the declared or prospective GOP candidates has much of a chance of defeating the coming Clinton/Obama ticket.
UPDATE: The obvious answer
National Review Online’s Jim Geraghty suggests there may be some reticence among significant numbers of likely Thompson supporters owing to his delay in making his entry into the presidential race official. That makes sense to me, if in fact $3 million is somehow less than might legitimately be expected.
UPDATE II: Reaxs Right and Left
Ed Morrissey at Captain’s Quarters read the Allen piece and came to much the same conclusion as yours truly. Ed does a little extrapolation and concludes that:
“Extrapolating his fundraising to a full quarter, Fred would have raised $9 million as a non-candidate. That’s what John Edwards raised in Q2 as a top-tier Democratic candidate, and only $2 million below John McCain. Had he met the $5 million goal, he would have outraised Romney and come just below Giuliani.”
Over at Daily Kos, Thompson’s alleged laziness plays a central role in the conclusion that nobody can save the GOP:
“Every so-called savior the GOP offers up has fizzled. Not surprising. The GOP, as currently construed, cannot be saved. And it sure as heck won’t be saved by a person as lazy as Fred Thompson. Come on Newt and Cheney, we all know you guys want to run!”
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