With Black Friday just days away, retailers are, in a word, anxious.
“Everyone’s looking at Black Friday to determine where they’ll go with their sales and discounts,” said Lisa Bisenius, associate general manager for Towson Town Center. “The retailers will make their determination after Black Friday, so it’s too early to tell what will happen the rest of the holiday season.”
It’s no surprise retailers are anxious and preparing for what could be the worst holiday shopping season in decades.
In October alone, U.S. retailers recently reported sales fell by 2.8 percent — the largest one-month drop ever — and the Conference Board said consumer confidence fell to an all-time low. Mounting layoffs and stock market losses have left consumers cash-strapped and cautious at a time when they’re expected to spend without hesitation.
“The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumer confidence,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board. “This news does not bode well for retailers who are already bracing for what is shaping up to be a very challenging holiday season.”
No matter, the Black Friday show must go on for the region’s malls and department stores. Almost all retail locations plan to open before dawn Friday and pack the day with giveaways and activities to keep shoppers shopping. The sales will be there, but the question remains whether consumers will care.
Last year, when the U.S. economic slowdown was in its infancy, the National Retail Federation predicted holiday sales would increase 4 percent to $474.5 billion. When the dust settled on a sluggish season, sales increased 3 percent to $469.9 billion — the weakest annual growth since sales rose 1.3 percent in 2002.
This year, the NRF has scaled back its projection, saying sales will rise 2.2 percent to $470.4 billion, a gain well below the 10-year average of 4.4 percent sales growth.
The NRF expects “shoppers to be very conservative with their holiday spending,” according to NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells.
“We expect consumers to be frugal this season and less willing to splurge on discretionary items,” Wells said.
It’s an anxious time for retailers, no doubt, but Bisenius said Black Friday is still an enjoyable time to be in the business.
“For everyone who does what I do, we say, ‘This is what it’s all about,’ ” Bisenius said. “It’s the culmination of what we do.”
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