This Jay Cost post analyzing Rudy Giuliani‘s primary strategy is worth your time. Most political professionals say Giuliani is pursuing a “February 5 strategy” in which he plans to survive the early primary states, win Florida on January 29, 2007, then go on to victory in the February 5 megaprimary. The danger in such a strategy, these professionals continue, is that the non-Giuliani winner(s) of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary will receive free media and considerable momentum, probably enough to erase the former mayor’s frontrunner status and deny him victory in Florida and beyond. Cost raises an intriguing objection, however. What if Giuliani isn’t actually banking on a “February 5 strategy”? What if he understands he must win at least one of the first three contests – Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan – and probably South Carolina, if he has any chance of winning Florida? Cost has the numbers:
Reading Cost’s analysis, one has the sense that Giuliani understands New Hampshire may well be a make-or-break contest for him.
