IT’S BEEN MORE THAN A WEEK since the election for president of the Philippines was held and the results are nowhere near official. Not that anyone has demanded a recount (yet) or there’s any dispute over chads. And it’s not because the courts have intervened. In fact, this waiting game is perfectly normal. With 35 million ballots cast in a country consisting of more than 7,000 islands, the tallying is expected to take a month. And did I mention the votes are counted by hand?
Nevertheless, according to exit polling done by the independent Social Weather Stations, current president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is predicted to win reelection, defeating her nearest opponent, action-movie star Fernando Poe Jr., 41 percent to 32 percent. More crucial is NAMFREL (the National Citizen’s Movement for Free Elections), which is the only group sanctioned by the government to conduct their own “national quick count,” and who, as of yesterday, had Arroyo leading Poe by 1.4 million votes.
Arroyo ran against four other opponents. One of them, former senator and education secretary Raul Roco, has admitted defeat but still insists there was “widespread vote buying” (a practice popularized during the Marcos years, in which one of the candidate’s cronies travels from town to town handing out wads of cash to voters as they head to the polls, with predictable results). Another contender, televangelist Eduardo Villenueva (aka Brother Eddie), has also conceded, but mentions “glaring actions” and “acts of fraud.”
As for Fernando Poe, a man of with no prior political experience, and who the Australian calls “a charismatic show business ratbag,” a concession call to Arroyo is the furthest thing from his mind. On the contrary, “Da King,” as he is known to his many loyal fans (he’s been acting for more than 40 years), claims his party’s poll gives him a “commanding lead.” His supporters have taken out full-page newspaper ads also declaring him ahead of the race.
But as Arroyo’s margin of victory increases in independent polls over the next few weeks, it is likely Poe will have to concede. His other options–either using the military or calling for a “People Power” uprising–no longer seem feasible. His other political ally, former actor-president Joseph “Erap” Estrada, remains in jail (where he reportedly spends much of his time playing video games). And the voters themselves are less angry than when they took to the streets en masse in 2001 against Estrada, leading to his imprisonment on corruption charges and granting Vice President Arroyo the presidency. Rather, the public is fully aware that their economic woes would only worsen if “Da King” were to take the throne. Foreign investment would continue to flee. (In fact, as Arroyo’s victory appeared more likely, the Philippine pesos closed higher against the dollar.)
In addition, the public has no desire to increase the bloodshed. With a Communist insurgency that somehow persists long after the collapse of communism, the al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf Group continuing to terrorize the south, and a 12,000-strong Moro Islamic Liberation Front threatening to break away from the republic, the last thing the Philippines needs is a revolt to overthrow the government. (Sadly, close to 150 Filipinos were killed during the campaign season, including a 14-year-old girl who died when a bomb exploded on the island of Jolo.)
WHAT SORT OF MANDATE does this give Arroyo? Besides her calling for national unity, the president intends to make modernizing the voting process one of her priorities. Other priorities will likely include cutting the budget deficit, stabilizing the economy, and attracting foreign investors. As Greg Sheridan recently pointed out in The Weekly Standard, “Economic development is often stymied by a peculiar mixture of bad security, excess regulation, corruption, and mad, populist, left-wing activism.” Sheridan cites mining as an example. “The United Nations lists the Philippines as the fifth most mineral-rich nation on Earth. Yet minerals now account for less than 3 percent of exports, compared with 25 percent two decades ago. Under populist anti-foreign pressure, the Supreme Court ruled the Minerals Act unconstitutional because it allowed foreign ownership of mines. The result is minerals stay in the ground and Filipinos stay poor.” Meanwhile, a full third of the Philippine budget goes to pay off debt interest. One senior U.S. diplomat went so far as to call the situation “near hopeless.”
An economist educated in the United States, Arroyo has called her first three years in office “a down-payment.” Fair enough. But with her term to be extended for another six years (barring a coup), can her policies improve one of the more stagnant economies in the region? Will she successfully take on the corruption and cronyism that has plagued the Philippines for decades–all while remaining America’s strongest ally in Southeast Asia and continuing to fight the war on terror?
Arroyo has her work cut out for her. Any number of threats, from separatists and terrorists to the military and the economy, can bring her down. In a way, Fernando Poe should be happy he doesn’t have her job. Besides, he can always rejoin the battle of good vs. evil on the big screen (which he seems to be quite good at).
Victorino Matus is an assistant managing editor at The Weekly Standard.
