New applications for unemployment benefits jumped to 268,000 in Thanksgiving week, the Department of Labor reported Thursday, up from a low 251,000 the week before to the highest level since June.
The increase was much bigger than the 2,000 increase forecasters had projected, and a possible sign of concern even amid strong labor market news.
Low jobless claims, which are adjusted for seasonal variations, are viewed as a good sign, as they indicate that layoffs are rare.
At 268,000, claims are still low enough to signal that unemployment will keep trending down. Nevertheless, it’s a step away from the ultra-low levels that have prevailed in recent months as the unemployment rate has fallen below 5 percent and workers have been drawn into the active workforce.
Economists calculate that claims below 300,000 are consistent with falling unemployment. New claims haven’t hit that mark in 91 weeks, a streak unseen since 1970.
And Thursday’s increase might be related to the difficulty that the Labor Department faces in adjusting for the changes that come with the Thanksgiving holidy, High Frequency Economic forecaster Jim O’Sullivan noted. “Through the volatility, the trend still looks low, consistent with a still-strong trend in employment growth,” he wrote.
Private-sector economists expect that Friday’s jobs report for November will show around 170,000 new payroll jobs, more than enough to keep unemployment rending down.
That would mean that President-elect Trump would be on track to inherit an economy near full employment from President Obama in January.
