National security experts are not surprised that the Department of Defense is conducting business as usual following news that President Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, and adversaries are likely to refrain from testing America’s defenses.
“There really is nothing to indicate any concerns,” Heritage Foundation national security expert Jim Carafano told the Washington Examiner.
“The larger issue is the U.S. has an incredibly robust command and control system,” he said. “This is obviously something that the administration would have planned for; you have a pandemic, of course, you assume that senior officials are going to get exposed or infected.”
Carafano pointed to the nation’s response to the 9/11 attacks as an indication that America has a smooth system for continuity of government during a time of crisis.
“Governance in the country was never in question even though we had significant disruptions,” he said. “In terms of continuity of government, we have done so much since 9/11 to make it even more robust.”
Carafano pointed to improvements in communication links, protocols, and contingency plans.
American Enterprise Institute military expert Zack Cooper also downplayed the defense implications of the president’s positive COVID test.
“Some folks are really worried about the implication from a national security perspective,” he told the Washington Examiner. “I’m not convinced that they’re that severe at the moment, at least.”
Cooper noted that it is unlikely that foreign adversaries such as China, Russia, and Iran will make any moves to challenge the Trump administration at this time, given the uncertainty and the likelihood of a swift, forceful response.
“It’s unlikely heading into the election that President Trump or Vice President Pence would want to look weak. And I think foreign leaders have to know that fact,” he said.
“I think they’ll also see it as a particularly risky time,” Cooper added, panning a Chinese action against Hong Kong or a move in the South China Sea.
The China military expert also said that adversaries have been studying Trump for nearly four years. If Vice President Mike Pence were to take over or other senior officials’ strategic roles were elevated, adversaries would be less capable of predicting the American response.
Furthermore, the intelligence community has already assessed that both China and Iran favor Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the presidential race and would be unlikely to attempt a move that could strengthen Trump.
“You’d have to be really confident if you were in Beijing or Tehran that an action you took wasn’t actually going to reinforce the president’s hand,” he said.
However, Cooper noted asymmetric attacks such as Russian election meddling will likely continue.
Military ‘basically unaffected,’ other security concerns remain
Cooper described the “tiny” White House situation room and crowded West Wing, where senior administration officials would continue working in close quarters on national security matters after exposure to the president.
“The military itself, I think, is basically unaffected by this announcement,” he said. “The only area of concern is going to be whether the White House and the national security council, in particular, would be able to meet quickly in these circumstances and come to an agreement quickly.”
The concern rises if key administration members come down with COVID in the next week or two, he said.
“There are a lot of people, there’s not much space, it’s exactly the wrong kind of place to be if you have COVID,” he said.
The Department of Defense Friday morning released a statement noting that there was “no change to DoD alert levels.” Carafano believes this is also a signal to reassure the public and indicate to adversaries that the United States is not acting provocatively.
Carafano also assessed that adversaries will not test the American national defense apparatus.
“Serious adversaries are intimately familiar with the robustness of our command and control and wouldn’t even contemplate thinking that somehow the United States is vulnerable or compromised or weakened because of this,” he said.
Early Friday, U.S. Strategic Command confirmed that the Navy’s Boeing E-6 Mercury nuclear command and control aircraft were conducting missions on the nation’s east and west coasts. Stratcom described the timing of the missions as “purely coincidental” with the president’s diagnosis announcement.
“I think it’s just another signal to a foreign adversary that now is not the time to try and take advantage of the United States,” said Cooper.
Added Carafano: “People know what that aircraft represents. And when they see it go up, they know that it’s the signal ‘Don’t mess with us.’”
