Metro’s bus prediction system is even less reliable now than when the transit agency deemed it so inaccurate as a pilot that officials pulled its plug.
The NextBus system, which uses GPS signaling to help predict when a bus will arrive at a given stop, currently forecasts bus arrivals 78 percent of the time correctly, according to Jack Requa, who oversees Metrobus operations.
That is far below the system goal of 92 percent. It’s also even less than the 80 percent prediction rate the smaller pilot version had in October 2007, when Metro officials decided to “pause” the system because it was not accurate enough.
The transit agency didn’t restart the system until July 2009, nearly two years later. Last spring, then-General Manager John Catoe told riders it would be “worth the wait” because the agency was making sure “we have everything in place” to meet a 95 percent accuracy goal. But the problems clearly persist.
This time, though, the transit agency has no plans to pull the system down, Metro spokesman Reggie Woodruff said.
“We’re not satisfied. Seventy-eight percent is not acceptable,” he said. “We’re continuing to try to improve the system.”
» Metro plans to pay $222,800 for the NextBus contract in the coming fiscal year, according to a Metro report issued last week.
Each bus is equipped with GPS equipment that tracks the location of the bus as it travels its route. Riders then call in to an interactive system on the phone or visit a Web site to find out when the next bus will come to a specific stop.
For riders, the system promised a solution to waiting for chronically off-schedule buses. Only three of every four buses were considered “on time” last month, according to a Metro report, even when the definition of on time is two minutes earlier than the published arrival time or up to seven minutes later.
For riders, the system promised a solution to waiting for chronically off-schedule buses. Only three of every four buses were considered “on time” last month, according to a Metro report, even when the definition of on time is two minutes earlier than the published arrival time or up to seven minutes later.
“NextBus has been one of the best things,” said Metro board member Christopher Zimmerman. “It’s greatly improved the quality of my life. … That said, it has to work with a fair amount of accuracy.”
Part of the problem is that buses drop off the network if they aren’t moving — meaning a bus stuck in gridlock disappears, Requa said. Buses also vanish if they run 160 meters off their normal routes, a problem for detoured buses.
Despite such problems, Woodruff said riders seem to like the program, based on the small number of complaints Metro receives.
Metro logged 148 complaints about the NextBus system for January through March out of 1.5 million uses. That’s close to the 150 reported in the first three months of its new operation. However, many riders may not bother to call when they experience a problem. Zimmerman himself pointed out that he did not call earlier this month when the system messed up on two buses.
