Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads a charmed life.
Just two years ago, he was a pariah within Republican circles and written off for dead by most of the Texas press corps. Now, Perry stands a good chance of winning a record fourth term.
In 2007, the Republican legislature was in open revolt against the governor on how to build toll roads and his trying to mandate that sixth-graders get a vaccine for the sexually-transmitted Human Papiloma Virus (HPV). And the Texas Capitol Press Corps was having a field day with a series of sweetheart deals for preferred donors and lobbyists coming from the governor’s office.
If the election had been held in 2008, Perry would have been a gonner. After all, his main opponent – U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is popular, convinced a lot of the state’s major business leaders campaign donors to abandon the incumbent, and has raised lots of money. (Each had about $10 million cash-on-hand 30 days prior to the elections.)
But now Perry’s in the drivers’ seat, with a commanding lead over U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchision in all the major polls heading into the March 2 primary. Why?
* The National Recession and Barack Obama. Unlike the rest of the country, the Texas budget’s in the black, and the state cut spending and didn’t raise taxes in 2009. In Obama’s massive expansion of government, GOP primary voters have found something that scares them more than the past apostasy of their own party leadership on spending and illegal immigration.
Perry has milked this beautifully – picking fights with the Obama administration over strings attached to the federal stimulus and education funding. He has also tried – largely successfully – to tar Hutchison with the same broad brush as the Democrats in Washington DC.
* The lack of message for Hutchison. Perry has a compelling, larger-than-life campaign theme (Texas good. DC bad.). Hutchison needs one, particularly given that – although she votes largely pro-life in Congress — she has expressed support for Roe v. Wade.
* Hutchison’s failure to provide credible alternatives to policies where Perry is on the wrong side of Republican primary voters. Hutchison’s transportation plan basically involves creating a committee to study the problem and coming up with real solutions mañana. She hasn’t proposed Arizona-style penalties on employers who hire illegal immigrants. Her property tax plan won’t cut taxes or restrain runaway local government spending.
* Debra Medina’s stumble. Until last week, Perry was almost in danger of being outflanked to the right by Debra Medina, a rural nurse who is closely tied to the fanatical supporters of Congressman Ron Paul.
Medina’s performance caused her standing in the polls to skyrocket from single digits to a real contender. A poll taken early last week showed, not only would Medina likely take enough votes from Perry to force an April 12 runoff, but she was within the margin-of-error of eclipsing Hutchison and making the runoff herself.
But on Feb. 11 talk show host Glenn Beck asked Medina whether she believed the U.S. Government played a role in the 9/11 attacks. Medina basically said she wasn’t sure and hadn’t seen the evidence. Immediately after the show, Medina’s campaign staff put out a release stating she believes “Islamic terrorists” brought the towers down, but by then it was too-little, too-late.
Medina’s standing will likely crater, and Perry may have a chance to win outright on March 2, though a runoff is still a possibility.
If Perry survives the primary, the general election will be tough, and Perry has high negatives with independents and the press. The likely Democratic opponent is Bill White, former mayor of Houston who won high marks for his handling of Hurricane Ike.
The success of the Perry campaign would drive home two points: a compelling message goes a long way in politics, and Perry has a Teflon political life.
William Lutz is the managing editor of the Lone Star Report.
