WESTERN EUROPE’S dominance of the United States’ affections is at an end, as Eastern European countries that grew up admiring the United States are becoming dear to the U.S. foreign-policy establishment’s heart. In ascendance with the Eastern Europeans are the new republics of Central Asia which, like Turkey, in addition to being strategically important, can be models for moderate Islam as a constructive force in the world. The geopolitical importance of the Central Asian republics cannot be understated. They are nations with tremendous natural resources that sit on the forward lines of the world’s most important ideological battle, Western-style democracy versus Islamofascism. These republics have been striving for the former, and the United States must be active in the region in order to assist them in this difficult transition.
Recently, Kazakhstan hosted American Jewish leaders from the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations for a conference that I attended. The heads of states of the surrounding republics joined the meeting and exemplified the Islamic moderation that their nations represent: In the opening plenary session the leaders took turns denouncing terrorism and made no criticism of the United States and its involvement in Iraq.
Kazakhstan is the largest of these fledgling nations. It is nearly four times the size of Texas and over the next 15 years should eclipse Saudi Arabia in oil production. It is a country that was born into the nuclear club, through its Soviet inheritance, yet chose to unilaterally destroy those weapons. It is a country that, while predominantly Muslim, is open to all nationalities and religions.
(It is also one of the very few Muslim countries that not only has diplomatic relations with Israel, but whose dealings with the Jewish nation can be described as warm. Israel in turn looks to Kazakhstan as an integral part of her outer rim policy, which is Israel’s strategy of developing relations with nations outside of the Middle East to counterbalance local threats.)
Kazakhstan has not only refrained from joining the anti-U.S. chorus denouncing its military moves, but has allowed the United States to establish forward military bases–despite Russian pressure against it. This fact should not be overlooked, since currently much of Central Asia and particularly Kazakhstan are still tied in many ways to their former owner’s apron strings. Kazakhstan serves as a bookend, along with Turkey, of a firewall that is working to contain the spread of Islamic extremism.
Yet despite these nations’ current predilections, there are no guarantees that the Central Asian republics will permanently throw their lot in with the West. Kazakhstan, for instance, shares a massive, mostly undefended border with both Russia and China, two nations fervently trying to establish their dominance in the region, and Iran is trying to export its brand of Islamic revolution. Over the next few years these Central Asian republics will be making fundamental choices about their identity and national relationships.
Russia’s economy is still based on petrodollars and Russia will not lie down and allow former “children” to leave her orbit of influence. Russia has used its muscles in order to bully its way into oil consortiums and extort economic and military concessions from the region’s countries, and has used subversion and coercion in order to reestablish the political order in some of these republics.
China has also established itself as a notable player in the region. China has insatiable energy needs, which have led it to negotiate the rights for development and transportation of oil from one of Kazakhstan’s major oil fields, in what it hopes will be the first step to tapping into the Caspian reserves. China also hopes to expand its influence in Central Asia as a stepping stone to realizing her long coveted goal of superpower status.
Iran has been aggressive in attempting to assert her influence, and she has done so with a combination of economic and cultural overtures in combination with subversive and physical coercion. The Iranians have already convinced the Kazakhstan government to move Kazakh oil through a future pipeline that will traverse Iran (the United States had hoped the Kazakhs would go through Turkey). According to the New York Times there is evidence that the Iranian secret service is spending millions of dollars to support radical religious leaders who are using their influence in order to create instability and foment fundamentalism among the people of the region. According to an Azerbaijani official, his government has had to close down madrassas and mosques because they were found to be under Iranian influence. (Other officials at the conference expressed similar concern over Iranian influence within their countries.) And at the same time the Iranians have directly threatened the Caspian nations with military force in order to lay claim to their oil.
For all of the positives that Central Asian republics possess, their Achilles’ heel is the immaturity of their democracies. They are still struggling with the basic tenets of this institution–such as truly free elections, independent judiciaries, and the reining in of corruption, therefore leaving themselves open to Islam’s menacing tentacles.
America’s foreign policy experts must gaze further east and raise the profile of Central Asia in their geostrategic thinking, instead of spending time mollifying cranky aging allies. The United States must make it a priority to help buttress the foundations of our new, vibrant, and strategically important ones.
Ami Horowitz is a writer living in New York City.
