President Trump’s Supreme Court pick could be his ace in the hole to bolster his numbers with Catholic voters, an especially critical constituency in the Rust Belt states that flipped the Electoral College in his favor four years ago.
Amid reports that Judge Amy Coney Barrett is about to get the nod when Trump announces the nomination on Saturday, Catholicism, and anti-Catholicism, could loom large in the confirmation process.
Trump is a mainline Presbyterian who has emerged as an ally of the Christian Right, while Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is a Mass-attending Catholic who, nevertheless, deviates from church teaching on some social issues, especially abortion.
An EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research poll of 1,212 Catholic voters, taken before the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg but released on Monday, gave Biden a 12-point lead. According to the survey, Biden was winning 53% of the Catholic vote, compared to Trump’s 41%. Trump edged Hillary Clinton 50% to 46% among Catholics in 2016.
“I’m concerned about the Catholic vote this time,” said a Republican strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “If the Democrats overreach in a Supreme Court fight, it could help me feel a lot better.”
White Catholics tend to vote Republican, while Hispanic Catholics predominantly favor Democrats. This trend held true in the last presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center. White Catholics went 60% to 37% for Trump, Hispanic Catholics 67% to 26% for Clinton.
The EWTN News/RealClear Opinion poll shows Trump leading among white Catholics by 5 points, a margin that will need to improve if he is to retake states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in November. Biden led among Hispanic Catholics by 63% to 31%. Trump does better among Catholics the more they go to church, winning 58% who attend Mass daily and 61% of those who go more than once a week. Biden won 69% of Catholics who seldom attend.
Social issues and religious liberty are a huge part of the Trump campaign’s outreach to Catholics.
“Joe Biden has made it clear that, if elected, his administration will abandon principles of religious liberty, codify Roe v. Wade, and institute abortion on demand. During his nearly 50 years in office, Joe Biden has repeatedly sought to enact policies that drastically undermine a citizen’s ability to live out their faith in their everyday lives,” said Trump deputy campaign manager Justin Clark. “This is the career politician whose administration dragged Catholic nuns through a near decade long court battle to force them to buy contraceptives, and whose pick for vice-president questioned whether being a member of the Knights of Columbus should disqualify a person from being a judge.”
Republicans have reason to expect that similar questions about the Catholic faith will be raised by Senate Democrats again if Barrett is the nominee. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat who will once again play a starring role in the confirmation process, told Barrett during her previous Senate testimony that the “dogma” lived “loudly” within her.
“Additionally, Joe Biden and his left-wing friends want to stack the Supreme Court with activist judges, like those who just recently voted to uphold an anti-Catholic ‘Blaine Amendment,’” said Clark. “President Trump, on the other hand, is the most pro-life president in history, a vocal defender of religious liberty, and has appointed over 200 [conservative] judges to the federal bench. The contrast couldn’t be more clear.”
A Catholics for Trump online launch event with conservative operatives Mercedes and Matt Schlapp, longtime Republican strategist Mary Matalin, and anti-abortion leader Father Frank Pavone received over 2 million views in April. The group has held other events with former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and former counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway.
The Trump campaign also touts prominent speaking roles that were given at the Republican National Convention to Cardinal Timothy Dolan, Sister Dede Byrne, and football coach Lou Holtz, all well-known Catholics. The campaign has also hired Catholic coordinators in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden has frequently hit back on Trump’s attacks on his social liberalism by describing himself as a devout Catholic and pointing out his regular church attendance. The former vice president abandoned his onetime opposition to abortion before his 1988 presidential campaign and reversed his support for the Hyde Amendment, which bans most taxpayer funding of abortion, during this campaign.
Concerns about the pandemic, Trump’s rhetoric and personal character, and racial justice since the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody have helped the Democrats win over some Catholics and other voters who normally support Republicans. “Amy Coney Barrett could bring them home,” the Republican strategist said.
