A new hurricane modeling system is in the final testing stages at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs and is expected to be operational for this hurricane season, according to the director of the facility’s environmental modeling center.
“The thing that we’re trying to do is save lives and save property and keep the economy going,” Stephen Lord said Monday. “And you do that with better forecasts.”
The new system, the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model, uses refined mathematical equations as well as atmospheric and oceanic data to create more precise forecasts of how hurricanes will act and where the path they will take up to five days in the future. Forecasters have tested the program for two years on historical data and will use real data from the 2006 hurricane season during the model’s final tests before it becomes fully operational.
The forecast model replaces a system first put into use in 1995. The older system was updated as needed, Lord said, and revisions will also be made to the new modeling program as forecasters work with it more.
“These models evolve piece by piece, year after year,” Lord said.
The new forecast model will help the Miami-based Tropical Prediction Center better plan research flights into the center of hurricanes, Lord said. It will also help create more accurate warnings and watches during hurricanes.
“The average person will see an improvement of the actual forecast,” Lord said.
