In this week’s newsletter, Bill Kristol reports the results of the un-scientific reader poll of the 2016 Republican presidential field:
There were 5,589 ballots cast in our Republican presidential primary poll–most by readers of this newsletter, some by other TWS readers who learned of the poll on our website or Twitter feed. As far as we can tell no campaign did much to try to stuff the ballot box, so while of course the poll isn’t a scientific one, I suspect it does capture with some accuracy the preferences of WEEKLY STANDARD readers, or at least of the more politically engaged among you.
What did we learn? It really is a wide-open race. You were asked to vote for first, second and third choices among twenty possible candidates. Scott Walker led with 18% of the first place votes for first place, and appeared on 44% of the ballots as first, second or third choice. As you’ll see, the other candidates were spread out behind–not much behind, and not far from one another. I’m confident that every other modern GOP race would at this point have had either a stronger front-runner or at least a stronger group of front-runners who would have dominated any poll far more than the leaders in this contest did. So the most important take-away from the poll is this, I think: not only isn’t there a clear front-runner, there’s not even a clear handful of front-runners.
Here’s how the 19 candidates ranked (we’ve tossed out Paul Ryan, since he announced last week he’s not running). The first number is the percentage of ballots the candidate was named on, whether as first, second or third choice (which I think is a more revealing number at this early point in the race than the first place choices alone). The second is the percentage the candidate received of first place votes.
Scott Walker–mentioned on 44% of the ballots as either first, second or third choice; first choice on 18%. Thus, 44/18.
Ted Cruz–35/16.
Ben Carson–26/10.
Mitt Romney–24/12.
Bobby Jindal–20/3.
Jeb Bush–18/8.
Marco Rubio–18/4.
Rand Paul–16/6.
John Kasich–15/4.
Rick Perry–15/3.
Mike Huckabee–12/3.
John Bolton–10/3.
Mike Pence–9/2.
Chris Christie–8/2.
Rick Santorum–7/2.
Lindsey Graham, Joe Scarborough, Carly Fiorina, and Peter King were below two percent in total ballots and below one percent as first choices.
So basically, the TWS primary right now sorts into five groups: Scott Walker in the lead; Ted Cruz alone in second; Ben Carson and Mitt Romney effectively tied for third; a fourth group of Jindal, Bush, Rubio, Paul, Kasich, and Perry within hailing distance; and a fifth cluster of Huckabee, Bolton, Pence, Christie and Santorum who would have to be considered long shots.
I was struck by some of the individual numbers, but will let you draw your own judgments as to what they mean. I’ll say again, though, that it does seem that the 2016 race, at least as of now, doesn’t resemble previous GOP contests–and therefore I think it’s foolish to assume that various patterns of recent nominating fights would necessarily repeat themselves.
What did we learn? It really is a wide-open race. You were asked to vote for first, second and third choices among twenty possible candidates. Scott Walker led with 18% of the first place votes for first place, and appeared on 44% of the ballots as first, second or third choice. As you’ll see, the other candidates were spread out behind–not much behind, and not far from one another. I’m confident that every other modern GOP race would at this point have had either a stronger front-runner or at least a stronger group of front-runners who would have dominated any poll far more than the leaders in this contest did. So the most important take-away from the poll is this, I think: not only isn’t there a clear front-runner, there’s not even a clear handful of front-runners.
Here’s how the 19 candidates ranked (we’ve tossed out Paul Ryan, since he announced last week he’s not running). The first number is the percentage of ballots the candidate was named on, whether as first, second or third choice (which I think is a more revealing number at this early point in the race than the first place choices alone). The second is the percentage the candidate received of first place votes.
Scott Walker–mentioned on 44% of the ballots as either first, second or third choice; first choice on 18%. Thus, 44/18.
Ted Cruz–35/16.
Ben Carson–26/10.
Mitt Romney–24/12.
Bobby Jindal–20/3.
Jeb Bush–18/8.
Marco Rubio–18/4.
Rand Paul–16/6.
John Kasich–15/4.
Rick Perry–15/3.
Mike Huckabee–12/3.
John Bolton–10/3.
Mike Pence–9/2.
Chris Christie–8/2.
Rick Santorum–7/2.
Lindsey Graham, Joe Scarborough, Carly Fiorina, and Peter King were below two percent in total ballots and below one percent as first choices.
So basically, the TWS primary right now sorts into five groups: Scott Walker in the lead; Ted Cruz alone in second; Ben Carson and Mitt Romney effectively tied for third; a fourth group of Jindal, Bush, Rubio, Paul, Kasich, and Perry within hailing distance; and a fifth cluster of Huckabee, Bolton, Pence, Christie and Santorum who would have to be considered long shots.
I was struck by some of the individual numbers, but will let you draw your own judgments as to what they mean. I’ll say again, though, that it does seem that the 2016 race, at least as of now, doesn’t resemble previous GOP contests–and therefore I think it’s foolish to assume that various patterns of recent nominating fights would necessarily repeat themselves.
