The end of the Democratic National Convention marks the start of critical post-convention polling, where surveyors expect to get a more reliable assessment of how voters view Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton and who they will vote for in November.
Here is what to watch for in the upcoming polls.
Polling is sooner — In previous years, pollsters needed about two weeks to measure the impact of political conventions on the presidential candidates, but the time frame has been cut in half, Suffolk University polling director David Paleologos told the Washington Examiner.
“Because of the compact nature of the news cycle and people’s limited attention spans, two weeks is a lifetime,” Paleologos said. “One week is appropriate now to see where the numbers settle.”
The bounce — Several polls showed Trump’s poll numbers improved after the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, where he delivered a more detailed policy address many in his party had been hoping to hear.
A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll showed Trump’s numbers rising in the days following the GOP convention, giving him a seven-point lead over Clinton.
Clinton’s numbers will also likely rise post-convention in the coming days, but pollsters will be watching whether either candidate can maintain those increases or whether the bounce will flatten out.
“The bounce is a product of where the race is,” Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, told the Examiner. “So there is no rule about whether a bounce lasts or not.”
Favorability ratings — Clinton and Trump are uniquely unfavorable among all voters. A Gallup Poll conducted July 18-25 showed voters viewed the two candidates equally unfavorably by a margin of 58 percent to 37 percent.
Pollsters will try to determine if the conventions helped either candidate overcome this critical flaw, although Gallup found so far that a bare majority of voters are less likely to vote for Trump following the convention.
“Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have higher negative ratings than positive ratings,” Suffolk University polling director David Paleologos told the Examiner. “The first measure that is significant is whether both have higher negatives than positives in the next round of polling.”
Trump’s demographics — Polls show Trump has had difficulty winning the support of married women and white, college-educated voters who tend to favor GOP presidential candidates, Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group, told the Examiner.
“Those are two constituencies where Trump is polling less than what he needs, if he can’t close those gaps he’ll have trouble holding a lead,” Faucheux said.
The Sanders faction — Now that Clinton is the official nominee, her campaign must try to win over the 12 million primary voter who chose Bernie Sanders, a self-declared socialist with a following of passionate supporters, many of them millennials. But many Sanders supporters are angry with the direction of the party and don’t like Clinton, even though Sanders has endorsed her.
“If Sanders is off off TV and doesn’t make any speeches, then his potency and strength will dissipate, Paleologos said. “But what you saw at the convention is that even Sanders couldn’t convert some of his own supporters. She needs to make the case to them, otherwise those voters won’t vote for her, or they won’t vote period. That’s the danger.”
Swing states — The presidential election will hinge on winning battleground states. Pollsters are already conducting surveys to find out if the conventions have influenced voters in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and other swing states.
“The pendulum will continue to swing and settle and ultimately the race will come down to a small group of undecided voters, many of them independents, in the battleground states,” Paleologos said. “And that will decide the election.”
