The Democratic Strategist blog points to a noteworthy study on Virginia’s emergence as a battleground state. Here’s the study’s main conclusion:
This jibes with the emerging Democratic majority thesis. Of course, the most recent instance of Virginia’s swing toward the Democrats was George Allen’s 2006 Senate loss to Jim Webb. It’s important to recall, however, that Allen lost to Webb by an extremely narrow margin. Virginia may be trending blue, but a lot also depends on who is running for office. If Allen had not had his “macaca moment”, he probably would have won reelection. Which suggests that a strong Republican candidate – who is up against, say, a polarizing Democratic candidate – still has a good chance of keeping Virginia red next year, at least in presidential terms.
