The nation’s premier youth vote counters are growing anxious that the group credited with putting President Joe Biden in the White House is leaving the Democrats and giving up on politics.
“Nearly every sign that made me confident in historic levels of youth participation in 2018, 2020, and 2022 is now flashing red,” said John Della Volpe, who for over 20 years has led Harvard University’s Kennedy School Institute of Politics polling.
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Progressive influencer Simon Rosenberg, who today hosted a meeting with Della Volpe and others concerned about the liberal youth vote, called for a national Democratic youth voter registration drive to keep younger voters connected to the party.
Highlighting reports that show younger voters are identifying less with Democrats, Rosenberg said, “We’ve got to take that seriously. It doesn’t mean we’re not going to get their vote. But the longer that goes on, the more dangerous that becomes for us over time, and it’s why we’ve got a lot of work to do here. We’ve got to make this really central to what we do as a party.”
Keeping and feeding the youth vote, he added, was the only way of fulfilling the left’s goal of “crushing MAGA.”
Della Volpe arrived at today’s Zoom meeting with his latest report, “Ring the alarm,” just up on his Substack, JDV on GenZ+.
It revealed that for the first time in decades, younger voters were less inclined to be Democrats or even see voting as the key to securing their basic values.
“None of this is good for the party in power. None of this is good for our democracy,” he warned.
He said that when the party needs the youth vote to succeed. He said Biden received 60% and former President Barack Obama 66%. But former Vice President Al Gore won just 48%, and John Kerry and Hillary Clinton took just 55% in their elections.
“In the simplest terms, when the Democratic Party nominee for president garners 60% of the youth vote, Democrats win. Otherwise, it’s ugly for them,” he wrote.
And it’s getting ugly, he said. Della Volpe said the 18- to 29-year-old voter is now less likely to vote, less likely to identify as a liberal or Democrat, is paying less attention to news, and less likely “to believe that politics is a meaningful way to create change in the system.”
Black youths, he said, “are turning away from their parents’ and grandparents’ party.” Those who identify as Democrats have declined a “jaw-dropping” 15%, most becoming independents.
Republicans are making inroads with young Hispanic voters. Once a 36-point Democratic Party advantage is down to 26 points. And, he added, “like young black Americans, this group is also less likely to vote than they were four years ago — as their disappointment in government and cynicism of the system is reaching peak levels and drowning out their belief in progressive government solutions.”
And white voters under 30 are the least likely to vote Democratic but the most likely to vote. “Even though white Zoomers and young millennials under 30 are decidedly more progressive on social issues — they’re also less likely to follow the news closely, less supportive of Democrats, and more motivated to vote than young people of color,” he said.
Della Volpe, like Rosenberg, said the party should act now to invest in voters under 30.
“I don’t think that there is a greater priority,” Della Volpe told the call.
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A national youth registration drive would help, Rosenberg said: “If we were to do a voter registration drive, we would be able to talk about the importance of voting and politics. We would be able to talk about the value alignment. All of these things would come up. And it would force the Democratic Party itself also, in my view, to really put young people at the center of our politics in a way that I think is required.”
Rosenberg added, “It’s critical that we maximize youth turnout for the good of our democracy and, frankly, for the good of our party. It’s not OK that we have so many nonvoters in this country. It’s not healthy for any democracy. And it’s something that we have to commit to try to solve against, in my view.”
