The bitter confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, initially believed to be a benefit to Republican Senate candidates, appears now to be a mixed blessing that is helping some Democrats, according to three state polls released Thursday.
The Vox Populi Polling findings in Nevada, Indiana and West Virginia Senate races show the conflicting impact of the Kavanaugh vote which President Trump and top GOP leaders have heralded in their effort to expand Republican control of the Senate.
In the polls, provided to Secrets, it is the Democratic candidates in Indiana and Nevada who are benefiting and in West Virginia, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision to cross party lines to back Kavanaugh does not appear to be helping him.
In Indiana, said Vox Populi Polling, the numbers suggest that Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly’s rejection of Kavanaugh has energized Democratic voters and not helped Republican Mike Braun.
The poll has Donnelly over Braun 55 percent to 45 percent. Some 35 percent said Donnelly’s vote for Kavanaugh will make them more likely to support the Democrat, another 28 percent said it would have no impact, and 27 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for reelection.
“The uptick in enthusiasm among Democrats following Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation is a direct result of Sen. Donnelly’s vote against him,” said Vox Populi Polling Managing Director Macy Cambio. “Nearly two-thirds of Democrats, and a third of Independents say Donnelly’s ‘no’ vote makes them more likely to vote for him this November. This, compared to just over half of Republicans who say his vote means they are less likely to support him suggests Donnelly may have ultimately made the right call in opposing Justice Kavanaugh in an otherwise reliably red state,” Cambio added.
In Nevada, the poll has Democratic challenger Rep. Jacky Rosen over Sen. Dean Heller 51 percent to 49 percent. Voters are split 34 percent to 34 percent over whether Heller’s vote to confirm Kavanaugh makes them more or less likely to support the Republican.
“Unlike other Senate contests, Sen. Heller can’t rely on his Kavanaugh vote to help get him across the finish line in what is now a tied race with Rosen,” said Cambio, adding, “While Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation battle has galvanized voters across the country, Nevada voters are evenly split on the impact of Sen. Heller’s vote on their Election Day decision.”
And in West Virginia, the poll has Manchin over challenger Patrick Morrisey 53 percent to 47 percent. In that race, 51 percent said that the Democrat’s support for Kavanaugh won’t impact their vote.
“With less than one in four West Virginia voters saying they are more likely to support Sen. Manchin because of his vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, it appears his eleventh hour decision did not have the impact on West Virginia voters that he was hoping for,” said Vox Populi’s Cambio. “While Manchin is up by a slim margin with less than three weeks until Election Day, Patrick Morrisey is well positioned to close the gap if he can convince the 61 percent of independent voters who hold a favorable view of President Donald Trump that he is the best candidate to help advance the Trump agenda in Washington,” added Cambio.
