The newly released audiotape from Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is important for a number of reasons. But it could also portend new near-term terrorist attacks against the West.
Strongly believed to be Baghdadi’s voice, the audiotape represents the first time ISIS’ leader has been heard from for 11 months. That long gap is not because Baghdadi didn’t have an audio recorder at hand. It’s because Baghdadi knows that any digital or electronic connection he establishes and any courier he entertains gives the U.S. and its allies added means of detecting and capturing or killing him. Still, Baghdadi’s silence until now is also believed to be a function of injuries he sustained during an air strike earlier in the conflict.
I think Baghdadi is speaking out now for three reasons.
First, Baghdadi recognizes that his surrounded, outgunned forces are making their final stand in the last formal ISIS redoubts of Syria’s Euphrates River valley. Baghdadi hopes that his words will give his forces the inspiration to resist to the last man. But by his thugs’ sacrifice, Baghdadi also hopes they will inspire other young Sunni men to join or rejoin ISIS. The group is now reorienting itself towards rebuilding its cell networks in Iraqi and Syrian towns. That longer-term agenda will be the key to any eventual ISIS revival.
To that end, Baghdadi’s message was filled by characteristic attacks on Shia Muslims, the Saudi royal family and Saudi clerics, and against the West. Those words are specifically chosen to galvanize the emotions of the young Sunni-Salafi men most predisposed to joining the group.
Second, while it is likely that ISIS has instructed its operatives abroad to carry out attacks when Baghdadi eventually dies, ISIS’ methodology also suggests Baghdadi might be the one to greenlight pre-planned attacks. Considering ISIS’ infiltration of the West, there is a real concern that Baghdadi’s new words might portend near-term attacks. If that’s not the case, Baghdadi will hope his words inspire losers abroad to conduct their own crude attacks.
Third, and most positive from humanity’s perspective, Baghdadi is speaking out because he senses the end may be very, very near. Baghdadi is important to ISIS’ centralized organizational and bureaucratic structure. He is a propaganda representative of its theological claims to a destiny of global domination. He thus wants to make use of his voice while he still has one.
Ultimately, while Baghdadi no longer speaks from a position of strength, neither is he too weak to have an influence. The ISIS leader retains many devoted followers and a credible terrorist capability. More importantly, he intends to set the groundwork for ISIS’ re-empowerment at a future date.
