Looking to secure North Korean denuclearization, the Trump administration may cancel a major joint military exercise with South Korea set for next summer. That announcement, made Wednesday at the Pentagon, comes as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo plans another meeting with North Korean counterparts set for next week.
Without substantial progress on denuclearization, however, now is not the right time to give up military readiness in exchange for, well, nothing.
Negotiations with North Korea have not been completely useless, but they have failed to produce significant results and there is no reason to expect that Pompeo’s latest push for talks will yield significant concessions. The last thing he needs to do is concede more without getting anything in return.
Instead, Pyongyang has taken steps that seem calculated to build goodwill without giving up key aspects of their nuclear program. That’s the idea behind efforts like the much publicized return of U.S. Korean War remains or the made-for-television stunt of detonating the Punggye-ri test site — which North Korea is now double dipping on by offering up inspections as a seemingly separate concession.
Perhaps the most substantial gain from the ongoing talks is the cessation of North Korean missile and bomb tests, which is and should be understood as a real gain for the U.S. But this is not an irreversible move toward denuclearization. After all, North Korea could decide to begin tests again tomorrow if they wanted.
More worrying is the continued production of missiles and clear attempts to conceal existing stockpiles visible on satellite imagery. Additionally, there have been no indications that North Korea has stopped its cyberattacks or other illegal programs that exist in parallel with its nuclear development.
That is little reason for the U.S. and South Korea to consider canceling another large-scale military exercise that is key to maintaining readiness against a country that seems to have little intention of actually giving up its nuclear program.
With a decision on the exercise expected by Dec. 1, the U.S. must not hastily make concessions, such as canceling more military exercises or even scheduling another meeting with President Trump without a clear commitment to denuclearization from Kim Jong Un.
