Elon Musk, the inventor and entrepreneur, claims he has a provisional authorization to build a “hyperloop” train network between Washington, D.C., and New York City.
Just received verbal govt approval for The Boring Company to build an underground NY-Phil-Balt-DC Hyperloop. NY-DC in 29 mins.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 20, 2017
By my calculations, Musk’s estimated journey time would require travel at an average speed of at least 471 mph. That’s nearly 100 mph faster than the world’s fastest train.
To be sure, it’s an exciting idea. But is it really practical?
Yes and no.
In engineering terms, Musk can probably pull it off. Hyperloop technology, which seems to be based on a mixture of pressurized air pockets and magnets, is advancing rapidly. And most scientists believe that it has practical application.
Yet, the distance from Union Station in Washington, D.C., to Penn Station in New York City is around 205 miles. Building such an elaborate transit system would take many years of planning and construction.
It would also be very expensive. No one knows exactly how expensive, but it would certainly be in the range of tens of billions of dollars. Indeed, 205 miles of track might send the figure into the hundreds of billions.
That high cost begs two questions. First off, who would pay for it?
It’s a critical concern. After all, as the National Interest has reported, Musk has a penchant for following government subsidies and grants. Indeed, his Tesla cars rely on huge government subsidies and benefit wealthier Americans, who are the only ones that can afford the cars. Moreover, alongside President Trump’s big government sympathy for expensive infrastructure projects, it’s very possible that the hyperloop’s costs might fall onto the shoulders of taxpayers rather than private investors.
Correspondingly, any government authorization for this project would have to be contingent on Musk’s gathering of private finance. Some government investment might be worthwhile, but it would have to be the minority stake.
The second question: Would the hyperloop system be worth the cost?
Perhaps. The business flows between Washington and New York are already significant and would obviously multiply if travel times were reduced from multiple hours to less than 30 minutes. Tourism and entertainment would also benefit with individuals taking day trips.
That said, some Americans could ask whether such a huge investment is deserved on the already extremely-wealthy East Coast. Government funding might reek of federal cronyism.
In addition, to make the hyperloop system worth its cost, its ticket prices would have to be very steep. I would imagine a one-way ticket would be at least $300. How many folks would be willing to pay this money? And if they didn’t, would government be forced to step in with Amtrak-style subsidies?
All these questions must be answered. The federal deficit is near catastrophic, so we must be sure about avoiding new billion dollar boondoggles.
A final concern is safety.
Here, my fear is not so much about the safety of the technology; it will either work or not work in testing periods, and will have built in safety redundancies.
Rather, I worry about the project’s vulnerability to terrorist attacks.
New York and Washington are the nation’s two top terrorist targets, and a crowded train traveling at nearly 500 mph would be a very tempting target. The death rate in such an incident would likely be 100 percent. To mitigate this danger, the hyperloop system would need airport level security.
By the time that the hyperloop came online, many travelers might be happy simply to use their driverless cars!
Ultimately, it’s important that we keep an open mind about this project. If it is feasible, affordable, and can be justified on its economic merits, the hyperloop should be built.
If not, however, it should remain in Musk’s brain.
