President Lyndon Johnson faced a conundrum. As the Cold War raged, the United States sought to cultivate both Israel and Arab allies. Each sought American arms, but the possibility that Arab states might use such weaponry to attack Israel was real.
It was against this backdrop that, in 1968, Johnson blessed the sale of Phantom F-4 fighter jets to Israel. At the time, the Phantoms were among the world’s most advanced. Israel received them before NATO allies Germany and Turkey and a decade before Egypt. Ultimately, the internal deliberations led to a de facto commitment to maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge. The logic was simple: The Arab world outnumbered Israel with troops, artillery, tanks, and aircraft. To balance out Arab states’ quantitative edge, successive U.S. administrations guaranteed that Israel would always have the first crack at the most advanced weaponry. For half a century, the balance created by Israel’s qualitative military edge worked.
It is time to replicate the model more broadly in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is increasingly aggressive. It is occupying, bombing, or threatening Cyprus, Syria, Iraq, Armenia, and, in recent weeks, Greece. At the same time, the White House has endorsed the sale of upgraded F-16 jets to Turkey as a bit of a consolation prize after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan disqualified Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program by purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile system.
To provide any advanced weaponry to Turkey is shortsighted, given the likelihood that Erdogan would use it more to harass Turkey’s smaller neighbors rather than defend Turkey against Russia. While Congress maintains broad bipartisan reservations about President Joe Biden’s Turkey deal, it is time Congress goes further. Just as every president since Johnson agreed that Israel should have a qualitative military edge for the sake of regional peace and security, it is time explicitly to require that the U.S. sell Greece and Cyprus more advanced platforms than Turkey possesses. This would help offset the advantages Turkey gains by its size.
Turkey has F-16s? Then Greece should have F-35s. Turkey has launched the Anadolu amphibious assault ship? Greece should gain access to the Zumwalt-class destroyer and the latest anti-ship missiles to counter the Anadolu. Turkey domestically manufactures Bayraktar TB2 drones? Then Greece and Cyprus should have Predators, RQ-170 Sentinels, and MQ-9 Reapers, as well as the means to disable and shoot down Bayraktars. If this means the U.S. must scrap the last vestiges of the Cyprus arms embargo, so be it. The United Nations has failed. Denying Cyprus weaponry only encourages Turkish aggression. That Turkey has moved from ethnic cleansing to cultural genocide and now threatens outright annexation of northern Cyprus means there is no more time to waste.
The goal of legislating a qualitative military edge for Greece and Cyprus would not be to provoke Turkey but rather to signal that it will never succeed in its expansionist agenda. By ensuring Greece has the means to defend itself against its far larger neighbor, a qualitative military edge creates a deterrence that can stabilize the region militarily, whereas the current disparity in forces encourages Turkish aggression.
Erdogan sought to blackmail NATO in order to gain F-16s. He cannot win; there should be no jets for Turkey. NATO’s second-largest member has sufficient aircraft to meet its security needs. Frankly, if Erdogan released Turkey’s imprisoned pilots, it would do far more to enhance Turkey’s defense than any new aircraft could.
A qualitative military edge for Greece and Cyprus would stabilize the Eastern Mediterranean, augment NATO assets, and discourage aggression. Should Erdogan or any future Turkish leader understand that the Pentagon would match every Turkish acquisition with sales of superior platforms to Greece and Cyprus, then any future Turkish despot would reconsider extortion as a state policy. There really is no downside. It is time for bipartisan action.
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
