Iran’s threat to increase enrichment beyond the agreed limits of the 2015 nuclear agreement is misguided just in terms of Iranian national interests. But it indicates the growing foreign policy influence of Iran’s hard-liner bloc.
Iran pledged on Monday that, within 10 days, it will cross the threshold of uranium enrichment beyond the 3.67% limit proscribed under its agreement with the Obama administration. One of the better elements of the accord, that 3.67% limit allowed Iran to retain the prestige of developing a civilian nuclear program, and the ability to save face under any deal, without risking the development of nuclear weapons. But with its 3.67% threshold threat and another warning that it may increase enrichment to 20%-plus, Iran is clearly rolling the dice. Twenty percent, after all, is the marker point for highly enriched uranium of the kind necessary to build nuclear weapons.
Iran’s action is designed to pressure the Europeans into somehow persuading President Trump to reduce his sanctions regime. Those sanctions have caused a deep recession in Iran’s economy and increasing popular protests. But this gambit won’t succeed. If Iran passes the 3.67% enrichment threshold, Britain and France will almost certainly reintroduce sanctions. Germany will likely then follow. And if Iran moves beyond 20% enrichment, it will face even greater sanctions. Crossing 20% will also mean losing diplomatic support even from China, which will wish to avoid alienating Iran’s nemesis, Israel, with whom it has been cultivating ties.
Still, all of this does indicate a broader political development in Tehran.
Because what we’re seeing here is the diplomatic counterpart to Iran’s recent military activities in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Peninsula. It’s calculated pressure which reflects the growing weight of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s deliberations. By Iran’s actions and his own words, Khamenei is making clear that Iran’s more-moderate bloc centered around President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif are losing influence to the IRGC. Slowly dying and possibly senile, Khamenei blames the more-moderates for failing to protect the economy from U.S. sanctions.
But Khamenei’s new calculation is delusional. If Iran surges enrichment beyond 3.67%, it will face new sanctions that further cripple its economy. And if it surges enrichment towards a viable nuclear weapon, it will face U.S. or Israeli military action to destroy said nuclear program. Always remember, Israel regards an Iranian nuclear weapon as the precursor to a second Holocaust.
