There are some legitimate signs the “blue wave” could be overhyped, but the midterm election forecast isn’t totally sunny for Republicans either. While the GOP has been celebrating the president’s approval ratings, indicators suggest the party could still suffer losses at the ballot box in November.
An NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday found the same uptick in President Trump’s job approval rating that others recent surveys have found, with the number jumping from 40 to 44 percent since April among registered voters. In that same time frame, the Real Clear Politics average of Trump’s rating has only increased from 41.9 to 42.1 percent, hitting its lowest point on Thursday since late April when his job approval started an upwards climb that peaked at 44.6 percent just this Monday.
NBC dispensed the news of Trump’s approval rating with a dose of caution, noting “that 44 percent matches the approval rating for Ronald Reagan (in June 1982) and Barack Obama (in June 2010) before both presidents saw their parties lose a significant number of House seats in the midterms.”
“And in terms of intensity, 42 percent of voters say they ‘strongly disapprove’ of Trump’s job, versus 26 percent who ‘strongly approve,'” NBC reported.
That intensity gap was matched by an enthusiasm gap as well.
“What’s more, Democrats are more enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms,” the report stated, “with 63 percent of them registering either a ‘9’ or ’10’ on a 10-point scale of interest, while just 47 percent of Republicans signal the same level of enthusiasm.”
With a strong economy, rising presidential approval ratings, and struggling Democratic Party, the mounting Republican optimism is understandable. But not all of the signs are pointing to GOP successes in November.
