The never-ending partisan battle between those seeking to preserve the past and those who would like to change it is on full display as American demographics change in unprecedented ways.
The drastic nature of coming ethnic changes to the electorate will alter the electoral map as we know it, realigning the importance of certain states in presidential elections and reallocating congressional representation to boot.
It may be difficult to envision this new America for some, and to others, it may even seem unlikely because of President Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, Trump did not win because he had a robust, diverse coalition of support (although he did fare better with African American and Hispanic voters than Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008) but because Trump was able to maximize turnout effectively among a steadily declining, yet eager and reliable white electorate. Trump benefited despite demographic shifts, making his victory a true political phenomenon.
While Trump’s 2016 victory was impressive because it was so unexpected, it cannot become the standard for how the GOP approaches future elections as it was almost certainly an outlier: the exception, not a new rule.
The GOP’s reliance on a shrinking base of voters puts the party at a significant disadvantage going forward. Despite his high approval ratings among registered Republicans, Trump’s brand of politics has alienated suburban voters, once a GOP stronghold, as well as Hispanics, African Americans, and Asian Americans — all groups the GOP needs to be competitive with.
This was made clear in the 2018 midterm election.
According to the Pew Research Center, 90% of African Americans voted Democratic over Republican, as well as 69% of Hispanics and 77% of Asians. According to the same study, college-educated women favored Democrats by 59%, with just 39% voting Republican. Meanwhile, 67% of voters ages 18 to 29 favored Democrats, and 58% of 30-to-44-year-olds also voted blue.
Nearly half of post-millennials, also known as Generation Z, are racial or ethnic minorities. Data from the Pew Research Center and the Census Bureau show that Generation Z is the most diverse generation in American history and also the most educated.
Neither trend bodes well for the GOP.
Based on the 2018 midterm data, we can project that Generation Z is likely to reject the Republican Party at even higher numbers. Their views on race, the role of government, and climate change are far removed from the Republican Party’s agenda. There’s little indication the GOP even realizes just how far apart it is on certain issues from voters beyond its base. Even if President Trump wins reelection in November, the demographic shifts point to a future where the GOP will struggle for relevance, influence, and power in an America that is increasingly rejecting its positions.
The impact this will have on the electoral landscape will make the mostly white states in the Northeast and Midwest less relevant and shift the electoral focus to the South and West. This will put into play former red states such as Georgia, where Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams only lost the state by 55,00 votes in 2018. It also puts into play other once reliably red states such as Texas, where Democrat Beto O’Rourke only lost his Senate race against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6% of the vote.
The future of America suggests a real possibility of a new and emerging Democratic majority. The diversity and views of younger millennials, merged with Generation Z, will restructure the electoral map in ways that put the Republican Party at a great disadvantage.
Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale once said, “The Trumps will be a dynasty that will last for decades, propelling the Republican Party into a new party.” Parscale may be correct in his prediction, but if he is, it will cripple the Republican Party’s ability to appeal to much-needed youth and minority voters.
Voters need choices among both political parties, but in order for the GOP to be a legitimate choice for many minorities, it has to transform itself into a legitimate alternative. The jury is still out on whether or not it can.
Shermichael Singleton (@Shermichael_) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a Republican strategist and political analyst regularly appearing on MSNBC.
