Supporters of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, are trying to portray the state’s recall election as an extension of the Jan. 6 riot and “voter suppression.” But the polls paint a different story.
The most recent poll, courtesy of Survey USA and the San Diego Tribune, found that 51% of likely California voters would vote to remove Newsom from office, compared to 40% who would support him. That’s a marked shift from May, when the same polling outfit found Newsom ahead of the recall 47% to 36%.
Obviously, 51% of likely California voters are not Trump-supporting QAnon conspiracy theorists. The poll indicates that independents back the recall by a 5 to 3 margin. Voters who have been partially or fully vaccinated support the recall by 4 points, and Latinos support it by 6 points. That math refutes Warren’s absurd “voter suppression” line.
Perhaps that poll is an outlier, but Newsom hasn’t fared much better in others. Newsom’s poorly named Stop the Republican Recall campaign warned, “If we do not have the resources we need to turn out our voters, we could lose this recall.” The campaign cited a poll from the University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies that found Newsom ahead of the recall by only 3 points among likely voters.
This isn’t just some Republican operation that has picked up steam. Registered Republicans make up just 24% of the state’s electorate. Newsom’s approval rating is underwater and voters think California is on the wrong track by a double-digit margin. California’s struggles with homelessness, crime, poverty, and energy issues are plain for all to see.
Newsom and his allies such as Warren are not painting this as some QAnon plot because they truly think it is one. They are doing it because Newsom is staring down an enthusiasm gap that he’s worried he can’t make up. Newsom is trying to scare complacent supporters into going to the polls to “save California,” and he is looking increasingly desperate.
Perhaps if California Democrats were more focused on actually solving problems in their state as opposed to playing as the progressives in the big culture war, they wouldn’t be in this position. Newsom certainly wouldn’t be in this position if he didn’t act as if he was better than everyone else, defying his own coronavirus restrictions. But once you are committed to the bit, you can’t stop. California Democrats turn every discussion into a national one: It’s why they are in this predicament, and they’re desperately hoping it can lift them out of it.
