In any major diplomatic or military struggle, success requires a willingness to seize and hold the initiative. The Trump administration is showing that willingness with regards to China and the Islamic State, but not Venezuela.
Consider, for example, the Trump administration’s action on Wednesday to increase pressure on Cuba over its support for Nicolás Maduro’s Venezuelan regime. The new action has four main elements: Sanctioning some Cuban companies, allowing lawsuits by Americans who claim the Cuban communists unjustly seized their property, banning most U.S. tourist visits to Cuba, and slightly restricting Cuban American remittances to the island nation.
National security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo say these are serious steps that will punish the communist government for supporting Maduro. I’m unconvinced.
Cuba’s support for Maduro is not a flippant choice that can be altered by small-ball U.S. actions such as these. Nor does it make sense for the U.S. to alienate allies (the European Union fears that the newly authorized lawsuits will damage its business interests in Cuba) without any prospect of securing a major change in Cuban policy.
Instead, what’s needed here is action that effects a major change in the Cuban government’s thinking. After all, Cuba’s support for Maduro represents an ideological calculation that its support will allow Maduro’s regime to survive and Cuba to continue benefiting as a result. To change that understanding, the U.S. must hit the Cuban government where it hurts most: on energy.
Desperately reliant on energy imports, Cuba is highly vulnerable to U.S. action to prevent Venezuelan oil supplies from reaching its shores. Were the U.S. to take that action, and sanction Cuban actors that retain access to the global economy, Havana would wake up very quickly. It won’t be until the communists realize that supporting Maduro risks their own regime that they change tack.
Until then, Trump will continue to fail on Venezuela. Maduro, Vladimir Putin, and Cuba know it.
