In a shock poll that has pulled his national RealClearPolitics polling average to a fraction of a point over Bernie Sanders, Quinnipiac reported that Joe Biden’s support has crashed by 9 points in less than three weeks, from 26% to 17%. Sanders saw a modest increase from 21% to 25%, positioning him in first place. Michael Bloomberg saw a significant increase, jumping from 8% to 15% and coming in third place ahead of Elizabeth Warren.
As usual, any individual poll should be taken with a grain of salt. The rest of Biden’s national post-Iowa polling thus far has only seen a slight slip in his support, and it’s possible that this poll is an outlier.
But this is no ordinary poll.
It accounted for Biden’s remarkably weak showing in Iowa, the immediate reaction to his dismal debate performance, and perhaps one of the best weeks of President Trump’s tenure. And now, for the first time in this entire primary, Biden’s national polling average is below 25%. Meanwhile, Sanders’s average has risen to above 20% for the first time since shortly after Biden announced his candidacy.
Biden’s bid is boosted by the apparent resiliency of his base, composed largely of older voters and black voters with a high likelihood of turnout. But between Biden’s falling fortunes in early states, a disastrous national poll, and that same poll finding that Sanders and Bloomberg beat Trump by a greater margin in head-to-head polling, Biden risks losing his single greatest asset in the race: his perceived electability.
From the start of the race, Biden’s advanced age polled poorly with Democrats, who also didn’t want a straight, white man as their nominee. But polling clearly showed that they made an exception for him for two easy reasons. As President Barack Obama’s beloved vice president, Biden could coalesce the centrist vote against the left-wing lane of candidates, and more importantly, he probably could beat Trump more easily than anyone else in the race in the former Obama states that Hillary Clinton lost.
But now, the former assumption is no longer a foregone conclusion, and the latter isn’t even obvious. Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar now collectively have a greater share of average national support than Biden, and Buttigieg won the first state in the nomination battle, boosting his perceived viability among voters.
Biden doesn’t need to panic, but he does need to buck up and ensure he wins Nevada and South Carolina in landslides. If not, moderates will shop for another candidate while Sanders continues to consolidate his increasingly dominant support.
