President Trump should recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as president of that nation. Doing so would pressure fraudulently elected president Nicolas Maduro’s corrupt regime by inspiring new opposition to him, and making clear that those who support Maduro will face a painful international reckoning when he is gone.
Yet unlike some of our forays into Latin American politics, this recognition wouldn’t be an act of arrogance on America’s part. It would be a recognition of just laws. After all, as president of the democratically elected National Assembly (which entered office in Venezuela’s last legitimate election in 2015), Guaido is vested to assume the presidency absent a legitimate president or vice president. In turn, seeing as Venezuela’s most recent presidential election last May was a tragic joke of massive proportions (fraud was rife and the ballots were stuffed in favor of Maduro) Guaido is entitled to occupy the presidential palace. Many Latin American nations recognize as much. Guaido is now recognized by Brazil, Chile, and Colombia as president of Venezuela. It’s recognition that hurts Maduro greatly.
Consider that Maduro’s power rests on the presumption that he alone can lead Venezuela. But where, as now, Maduro is treated by many of his neighbors with the disdain he deserves, his job becomes that much harder. Because the disdain speaks to a broader economic and diplomatic tightening around Maduro. This is especially important as the international community moves to cut off Maduro’s oil export capacity. As those in the Venezuelan military see that Maduro’s ability to continue paying them off is depleting, they will find new reason to support efforts to drive him from power. Remember here that the vast majority of those who currently support Maduro are not doing so for ideological reasons. Maduro is hardly an inspiring leader. Instead, Maduro’s support flows from the assessment of powerful Venezuelan figures that he presently offers the best means to their better interest. But if they believe that Maduro’s continued power will only make them weaker, and open them up to the risk of a legal reckoning in the post-Maduro era, they will move away from the pretender president. These dynamics are bubbling below the surface of Venezuelan politics already. Just this week a group of national guard soldiers attempted to galvanize new resistance to Maduro. The problem is that those who control the purse strings currently remain too entrenched with Maduro. Recognizing Guaido would be a significant undercutting of that entrenchment.
But it would also challenge those regimes that support Maduro — namely, China and Russia. As they witness growing regional disenchantment towards Maduro, and popular antipathy towards his rule in Venezuela, Beijing, and Moscow must reconsider whether their alliance with the despot is a good idea. They do not want to be in a situation in which Maduro is forced from power and their economic, diplomatic, and military interests are forced out with him. Nor do they wish to alienate developing regional economies such as those of Brazil and Colombia.
President Trump has been a leading voice against Maduro. Alongside regional democracies, Trump can take an added legal step towards confronting this despicable child-starving socialist regime. He should do so.
