The boom in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has made voters more conservative, according to a new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
“Support for conservative interests rises and Republican political candidates gain votes after [fracking] booms, leading to a near doubling in the probability of a change in incumbency,” researchers write. “All of this change occurs at the expense of Democrats.”
Researchers made their case by comparing fracking boom parts of the country with non-boom areas. “Shale drilling started in 2003, and by 2012 over 80 percent of House seats were filled by Republicans in boom areas, up from less than 50 percent in 1996. In non-shale districts from the same states, however, there is no trend: Republicans hold about half of the seats across the whole period.” Researchers estimate that fracking has caused 17 congressional seats to switch from Democrats to Republicans.
Even though fracking is mostly related to energy policy, the political change has affected many non-energy issues as well.
“Voting records of U.S. House members from boom districts become sharply more conservative across a wide range of issues, including issues unrelated to energy policy. A shock to political preferences from one kind of shock (energy development) spills over into other arenas (civil rights, labor policies, tax policies).”
The research was conducted by Viktar Fedaseyeu, with Bocconi University in Italy, Erik Gilje, with the Univeristy of Pennsylvania, and Philip Strahan, with Boston College.
The changes affect Congress as a whole, but not individual politicians. Researchers explain that politicians have less flexibility as they gain seniority in office, and they don’t change their positions in competitive elections. “Politicians lose their jobs rather than change their votes.”
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
