Facing the implosion of its military forces in Ukraine, a collapsing economy, and a population that is starting to ask hard questions, the Russian government is attempting to confuse just about everyone.
The first target is Ukraine and the international community.
Take Russia’s announcement of a major reduction of military operations in and around Kyiv and Ukraine’s northernmost major city, Chernihiv. This reduction is somewhat real. But only somewhat. Russia cannot afford to relinquish its position around Chernihiv, as that would jeopardize its control over a highway and arterial logistics route from Belarus. Regardless, Russia’s motive is not, as it claims, the successful execution of a plan to keep Ukrainian forces fixed in the north and away from the southeastern Donbas region. As evinced by the annihilation of hundreds of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and entire military units, this suspended advance is actually motivated by military necessity. Russian commanders need to regroup and allow their troops to rest and resupply. They also need Ukrainian forces to stop their increasingly effective counteroffensives.
This military deception is also designed to serve the second element of Russia’s deception campaign: the suggestion of its earnest effort in negotiations. Complaining that Ukraine is not negotiating seriously while Russia offers constructive proposals, Moscow seeks to encourage Western powers into pressuring Ukraine to make further compromises while also avoiding aggressive counteroffensives. Vladimir Putin’s government knows that certain European governments, such as France, Germany, and Italy, are far more open to a Russia-favorable ceasefire than are others such as Britain, Denmark, and Poland. Russia’s old game of dividing the West looms large.
This “We’re pursuing peace” pretense also helps Russia with its closest foreign partner.
Visiting China on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov almost certainly met Beijing’s request that Russia compromise with Ukraine. China is deeply concerned by the risk that its close relationship with Russia will see its own influence decline in Europe. But by dangling its military pause alongside peace talks, Russia hopes China will maintain its trade connections and international support for Moscow.
Still, it is the home front that poses perhaps the most significant concern for the Kremlin.
True, support for the war remains strong. But with perhaps more than 10,000 Russian soldiers now killed in just one month of the “special security operation,” it is now impossible to hide that this is a full-scale war. Recognizing as much, Russian state media have started broadcasting medal ceremonies for wounded soldiers. Alongside government and military officials, state media propagandists are also playing down Putin’s original presentation of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government as that of an existential Nazi threat. Instead, they suggest that the Donbas is nearly secured and the extermination of its population thus prevented.
At the same time, with international sanctions fueling inflation (which was high even before the war) and consumer goods/services shortages, Russia is also attempting to construct a fortress economy. Putin has authorized the seizure and relisting of passenger aircraft leased from the West. And on Wednesday, the government authorized the importation of foreign goods without the authority of those who produce those goods. Putin’s demand that European nations buy Russian energy with rubles also serves this nationalist economic strategy (though Putin is qualifying his demand in the face of the European Union’s rejection of it).
Put simply, Putin’s government is under very significant pressure. Attempting to dilute that pressure, Russia is employing a range of deceptions at home and abroad. But the ultimate intent is clear: Putin wants military, political, and economic space to advance his interests at the expense of Ukraine’s.
