Since Trump gained the “presumptive Republican nominee” label on May 3, the betting odds of him winning the GOP nomination or of winning the presidency have never been lower.
Campaign manager fired. Embarassingly low fundraising. Plummeting poll numbers.
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is in trouble, and betting markets have noticed.
On May 4, just after 2 p.m., Trump’s odds of winning the GOP nomination were at 96.6 percent, later rising to 97 percent at the end of May. They have since fallen to 84.4 percent.
The turmoil is benifitting Speaker Paul Ryan’s odds of being the GOP nominee, which have risen to 3.1 percent. There’s only an 11.5 percent chance that the nomination won’t be decided on the first ballot at the convention, but it does mean things could get more interesting than expected a month ago.
Trump’s odds of winning the presidency were at about 27 percent when he became the presumptive GOP nominee. They rose to 32 percent on May 24, and have since fallen to just 18.4 percent.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
