The polls have closed in several states holding Republican presidential primaries Tuesday, and the numbers are in. Here are a few brief thoughts:
Rubio bows out
Had he stayed in the race, it would have been nearly impossible for Rubio to clinch the nomination by earning half of the GOP delegates. He could have stayed in the race and tried to contend at a contested convention, but this also had a low chance of working. Rubio did not seem likely to win the support of a majority of delegates from eight states, per the GOP’s Rule 40 that will come into effect at the convention. Even if the GOP decides to eliminate Rule 40 before the convention, Rubio would still probably have fewer delegates than Cruz, making Cruz the likely winner of a convention that wants to go for anybody but Donald Trump.
What if Rubio had acknowledged this and tried to stay in anyway? It’s not clear if that would have helped or hurt Trump. Perhaps Rubio staying in keeps the vote split enough that Trump is unable to win a majority of delegates before the convention. On the other hand, getting out of the race might consolidate an anti-Trump vote behind Cruz, and Cruz could start winning more states as a result.
Delegates
How soon could Trump clinch the Republican nomination? As of 9:40 p.m. Tuesday, Trump now has 46 percent of the required delegates (not including any delegates he wins in Illinois, Missouri or North Carolina). But even if he won every single delegate from here on out, he couldn’t clinch until June 7, the final day of primaries (after he earns delegates from the rest of Tuesday’s states, it’s likely Trump might be able to clinch in May). That seems unlikely, given that only two states are winner-take-all for candidates who get a plurality, but not a majority, of votes between now and the end of April.
Rubio’s exit also makes things interesting. Rubio has 163 delegates. Those delegates are now free agents, but they won’t pledge support to any candidate until the convention. Furthermore, the delegate selection process is different from the way delegates are allocated to candidates. A given delegate might be bound to support Trump on the first ballot, but they might actually be a Cruz supporter who is ready to break for Cruz on the second ballot.
What’s next?
From here on out, the primary schedule slows way down. There are 98 delegates up for grabs on March 22 in Arizona and Utah, then nothing again until 42 delegates are distributed in Wisconsin. There’s nothing huge again until New York gives out 95 delegates on April 19.
In Arizona and Utah, there hasn’t been much polling done lately. Any polls that have been done are also tainted by Rubio’s inclusion. Arizona hasn’t been polled since November, and there hasn’t been any states that seem similar to it that have voted yet. Utah was polled most recently in February, but it showed Rubio in the lead with 24 percent. However, Idaho has the second-highest portion of Mormons in the country, and it gave 45 percent of its vote to Cruz. That’s the best indicator we have right now of who will win Utah. Arizona has the fifth-highest portion of Mormons in the country. It’s far below what is in Utah and Idaho, but still significant.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
