Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, seems convinced he should run for president. He can save his own time and other people’s money by looking at the writing on the wall.
Hogan can’t run for governor again because of term limits. He has ruled out running for Senate, which may have been a winnable race for him that could have put Senate Democrats in a tough spot in an already-tough national environment. Instead, he continues to hint he will run for president, which he has been doing for a couple of years now.
It does not take a crystal ball to see how a Hogan run would go. He would not win the GOP nomination for president. He would not even come close. He abandoned his pro-life position in the 1990s and has not looked back. The only thing that makes him stand out is his opposition to former President Donald Trump. But in 2016, anti-Trump GOP voters did not flock to centrist candidates such as then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Those voters chose conservatives such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, two products of the Tea Party movement.
Trump is held in higher regard by GOP voters now than he was during the 2016 primary. One of the big concerns with Trump among GOP voters was that he would be too liberal, as he was a lifelong Democrat who had donated to Democratic candidates. In polls, Trump is currently the front-runner for 2024. A liberal Democrat can beat him in the general election (as President Joe Biden did), but a liberal Republican won’t beat him in a primary.
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan dropping hints he’ll run for president in 2024 as a Republican.
“I believe that there is a pretty large lane of sane Republicans and they’re looking for a voice,” he says. https://t.co/zrmJvQdt8A
— Jan Wolfe (@JanNWolfe) February 13, 2022
Even if Trump doesn’t run, there is no lane for Hogan. The top alternative options are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence, two men whose conservative credentials are not in question. Anti-Trump GOP voters could choose either, but Pence’s refusal to humor Trump’s election delusions means he would be the default “anti-Trump” candidate. What does Hogan offer GOP voters that Pence does not, aside from supporting abortion (which isn’t exactly a popular stance in the GOP)? It isn’t clear.
Kasich scored just 13.8% of the vote during the 2016 primary, and he only got that much because he stayed in long after it was clear he had no shot at winning. He won just one state, his home state of Ohio. That was in a wide-open primary contest, which the 2024 race likely will not be. Even in the unlikely event that Trump, DeSantis, and Pence all choose not to run, there will probably also be second-tier candidates who are actually conservative, such as Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton or South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Hogan has no path to victory.
If Hogan just means this to be a vanity run to gin up some publicity for himself and some sympathetic coverage from liberal media who would use his candidacy to paint Republicans as extreme, then he should be open about that. If he truly believes he has a shot at winning the nomination, then his political instincts are nonexistent. Either way, we already know the outcome of his candidacy. It would be best for Hogan to acknowledge it and move on.
