The Republican incumbent senator is trailing by a large margin in two different polls that came out today. It’s dire, and unless things turn around, Republicans will definitely lose the Senate this fall.
Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner trails John Hickenlooper, the former governor and former Denver mayor, by a 52% to 42% margin in the latest poll by Global Strategy Group.
In North Carolina, a Survey USA poll showed Sen. Thom Tillis trailing Democratic challenger Cal Cunnigham 47% to 40%. Tillis hasn’t led Cunningham in a poll since June, according to the RealClearPolitics collection of polls, and he’s surpassed 45% in a head-to-head poll against Cunningham only once this cycle.
Martha McSally in Arizona was trailing challenger Mark Kelly by 5 points and 7 points in two polls released in the past three days.
Susan Collins was trailing by 1 point in two different Maine polls that came out last week and notably was well below 50% in both. David Perdue was slightly down in Georgia. Joni Ernst is tied in Iowa, also well below 50%.
In short, Republicans, who have a 3-seat cushion in their majority, are playing defense in 10 races, and definitively trailing in three of those 10. At most, Democrats are playing defense in four races, and they are not behind in any of them.
A Democratic gain of eight seats or more would not be shocking at all. A Democratic gain of four seats, and thus the majority, seems more like than not.
That means that if Trump wins, he will probably not be able to place any justices on the Supreme Court, and almost all of his other federal judicial nominees will be blocked. This will leave massive court vacancies for the next president.
A Democratic takeover of the Senate would have an even bigger effect if Biden wins. Democrats are nearly guaranteed to hold the House, and so a Biden win would probably mean complete Democratic control. So even if Democrats don’t do what they tend to do, and chip away at minority rights, they could hike your taxes, fill judicial vacancies, and who knows what else.
