For months, two rivals have vied to become the German chancellor candidate of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and take one step closer to succeeding Angela Merkel. Over the last 10 days, the battle has come to a dramatic head.
The two protagonists were the minister-presidents of Germany’s two most populous states, North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria. The contest saw Armin Laschet, 60, minister-president of North Rhine- Westphalia since 2017 and chairman of the CDU since January 2021, face off against Markus Soder, 54, minister-president of Bavaria and chairman of the CSU. The CSU is the Bavarian sister party of the CDU, which forms a united bloc in the German parliament, the Bundestag. What did each candidate offer?
Laschet has long toed the Merkel line and is committed to continuing her policies. During the 2015 refugee crisis, for example, Laschet stood firmly by Merkel’s side while Soder lined up against her and repeatedly criticized her strategy, called for more to be done to protect Germany’s borders, and opposed the claim that Islam is a part of Germany. Soder has even gone as far as to demand that schoolchildren sing the national anthem at the start of class and questioned Germany’s generous asylum laws. He also put daylight between himself and Merkel during the Greek crisis, referring to Grexit as the fairest and most honest way forward. In retrospect, it becomes clear that none of this was based on genuine political convictions on Soder’s part. They were all simply attempts to avoid hemorrhaging votes to the Right/far-Right AfD Party.
Soder has swung from Right to Left almost overnight. He has now adopted many of the policies espoused by the Green Party. Whatever Angela Merkel said in recent months, you could be sure that Soder would pop up within minutes to emphasize just how right the chancellor was! Apparently, Soder assumed that Merkel was still pulling the strings behind the scenes and was hoping to secure her support in his pursuit of the chancellor candidacy.
But it is Laschet who has now emerged with the nomination.
Laschet is certainly far more personally engaging than Soder, who often comes across as too forceful. Right now, many of the CDU/CSU members who supported Soder’s bid for the nomination are worried that the election campaign could end up with Laschet losing out to his Green Party challenger, Annalena Baerbock. These fears have been confirmed by polls published on Tuesday by the Forsa Institute that show the CDU/CSU has tumbled to 21% in the wake of Laschet’s nomination. This is the lowest figure the party has ever registered in the polls. The Greens have climbed to 28% and, if the election was held this weekend and the polls are right, would have a majority in the German parliament with the two other left-wing parties, the SPD and Die Linke.
Yes, the latest poll is just a snapshot of how the electorate might vote at this moment in time, but it does confirm that the CDU/CSU will not have it easy during the election campaign. Another problem: The vast majority of journalists sympathize with the Greens. After Baerbock received the Green Party’s nomination as chancellor candidate on Monday, she appeared in a TV interview and was asked one innocuous question after the other. At the end of the interview, the journalists actually applauded her! Some observers in Germany even suspect that Merkel would prefer Baerbock as her successor over a candidate from within her own party.
Interesting times await as we head toward the September elections.
Rainer Zitelmann is a German historian and author of the book The Power of Capitalism.
