Russia’s nearly completed Nord Stream II energy pipeline will secure Vladimir Putin’s energy stranglehold over Europe.
In turn, if Norwegian energy classification firm Det Norske Veritas validates the Nord Stream II pipeline, it should be sanctioned by the United States.
I say that in light of the escalating showdown over the pipeline’s completion. While Russian energy giant Gazprom is already under U.S. sanctions, Russia has enabled the project’s continuation by redesignating Gazprom assets under other corporate authorities. The Russian art of spying goes beyond assassination squads.
But America is striking back. Sens. Ted Cruz and Jeanne Shaheen last week introduced a new bill that would sanction any entities providing services in support of the pipeline’s completion. That matters with regards to Det Norske Veritas, because the firm will be responsible for validating the pipeline. Few, if any, alternatives to Det Norske Veritas exist.
In short, if the company is sanctioned, the Nord Stream II may never be completed. That would be a very good thing.
After all, Nord Stream II is not ultimately designed to double Russia’s supply of natural gas to Europe, though that’s what would happen. That supply is only the means to the end. Putin’s end game is his assured stranglehold over the European energy market. A stranglehold that will allow Putin to hold winter energy supplies hostage for the ransom of European Union political deference. In essence, Nord Stream II will allow Putin to say, “You want to heat your homes and businesses? Well, you better do what we want on Syria, Venezuela, and the Arctic. And oppose the Americans on issues X, Y, and Z.”
The Europeans understand this, of course.
But apart from Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states, European politicians prefer to put the short-term supply of cheap energy before the longer-term security of their peoples. This choice is also reflected in their defense budgets. Indeed, Nord Stream II is literal and figurative proof of the hot air that so often defines European rhetoric on upholding the liberal international order.
But that order is going to face an even bigger Russian challenge if this project is completed. With Europe dependent on Russian energy supplies, Putin will have both the incentive and political insurance for new aggression on the continent. Considering America’s outsize contribution to NATO’s umbrella, it will fall on American shoulders to resist Putin.
We shouldn’t wait to get to that point.
Europe needs energy security, but alternatives exist in the form of nuclear power, American natural gas exports, renewable energy sources, and Europe’s expanded purchase of oil. The systemic decline in oil prices makes these alternatives even more credible. This is part of the reason Putin wants Nord Stream II completed as soon as possible. The longer the project goes uncompleted, the more likely that Iran and Venezuela will get their acts together and embrace reforms that allow their resumed supply on the global oil markets, reducing Russia’s dominant market share. Further delay will also give Putin’s archnemesis, the U.S. fracking industry, time to keep innovating and reducing its per-barrel break-even point, dragging oil prices further downwards still.
Putin needs at least relative energy dominance to sustain his regime. Without it, he has a problem. For American and European security interests, however, this is a big opportunity.
The U.S. government should make clear that if Det Norske Veritas goes ahead with this contract, they’ll no longer be able to do business with American interests, and that any other entity doing business with Det Norske Veritas will face secondary U.S. sanctions.
